Pomp & Surkanstance: 2010

31 December 2010

EPNW: Podcasting – The Indispensible Tool for Building Relationships

NOTE: I am offering an on-line 1 hour webinar for that goes into detail on how to use podcasting to find a job or grow your business. The first 10 people to register will be able to get a 33% discount. Just type in the word "earlybird" for the discount code. Just click here to register: http://bit.ly/podcastintro

Learn how to use podcasting to build relationships to grow your career or business. This is the perfect tool to open doors to the people, and businesses, you want to know. It is all about having conversations with the people you want to know and building friendships. Having an audience of listeners is almost beside the point.

You can find more details on how to use podcasting for business and careers here: http://bit.ly/gttkny

You can check out my own podcast shows to get an idea of how I use this tool for both growing my career and finding business.

Entrepreneurs Northwest
Tales from the job search trenches
Practical Software
Linked:Seattle Radio

I even have a show on economics which is strictly as a hobby.

The Optimistic Bear

I am eager to make a presentation of the value of podcasting for networking to any group that might be interested. I can speak in person to groups in the greater Puget Sound area and can give webinars to groups further afield. Just e-mail podcasting@surkan.com if you would like to inquire about having me speak.

29 December 2010

Patrick Killelea guest appearances on Bear Radio

Check into this page for the definitive list of all the Bear Radio shows in which Patrick Killelea has been a guest. This directory is updated to contain the link to every new Bear Radio show that Patrick participates in.

February 2, 2011

Why health care reform is driving up your medical bills

In this episode Patrick Killelea explains how the US health care reform legislation actually provides incentive for insurance providers to charge even more. Restrictions on the amount of profit that can be made make it attractive to pay more for care and treatment to ensure a higher over-all bill. This might explain why Blue Shield has increased Patrick’s insurance premiums by 73% this year alone. It’s things like this that drive a guy to the streets in protest, which is exactly what Patrick did this week.

December 28, 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Bearish predictions for 2011

In this episode Patrick Killelea joins us to do some crystal ball gazing for 2011. Tune in to hear predictions for rising interest rates, a declining Euro, and crashing stock prices in Asia and America. Patrick predicts that affluent areas will see significant price erosion for 2011 and that the National Association of Realtors will declare that it is a great time to buy. The Optimistic Bear posits that America is embarking on a lengthy odyssey with deflation, much the same as Japan has experienced, and that 2011 will be one of the down years taking asset prices to new lows. Europe will experience a bail-out too far, where the political will to arrange yet a bail-out for another distressed state falters.

December 12, 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Posh neighborhoods beware – the housing bust is heading your way

In this episode housing blogger Patrick Killelea explains why real-estate prices still have a long ways to fall in the tonier communities. Prices fell faster in poor areas where people live paycheque to paycheque. The more well heeled home-owner has assets to burn through, and it takes them longer to get desperate enough to take losses. Patrick also talks about how the primary problem is the masses of bad debt, out of relation to incomes, which still hasn’t been written down throughout the economy. In Patrick’s view, the cozy relationships between banks and government have made the financial crisis what it is. The only thing government efforts to subsidize housing (or anything else, like education) accomplish is to drive up prices.

This Week on Bear radio: Bearish predictions for 2011

In this episode Patrick Killelea joins us to do some crystal ball gazing for 2011. Tune in to hear predictions for rising interest rates, a declining Euro, and crashing stock prices in Asia and America. Patrick predicts that affluent areas will see significant price erosion for 2011 and that the National Association of Realtors will declare that it is a great time to buy. The Optimistic Bear posits that America is embarking on a lengthy odyssey with deflation, much the same as Japan has experienced, and that 2011 will be one of the down years taking asset prices to new lows. Europe will experience a bail-out too far, where the political will to arrange yet a bail-out for another distressed state falters.

Download the sound(right click and save as link) : Download

You can find all the Optimistic Bear shows here: Optimistic Bear

You can find all the Entrepreneurs Northwest shows here: Entrepreneurs Northwest

You can check out Patrick’s economic news site here (as well as his great forums for discussing real-estate and the economy):
http://patrick.net

If you are interested in deflation, check out the Deflation Study Group on LinkedIn (open to all LinkedIn members):
http://linkd.in/deflationsg

You can also listen to my in-depth Deflation 101 podcast.
http://bit.ly/deflation101

This show is sponsored by:

24 December 2010

EPNW: Successful sales start with product development

In this episode Matt Heinz explains that successful sales start during product development. No amount of salesmanship can make up for a product that doesn’t meet customer or market needs. It’s all about understanding your customer. Even the marketing strategies should take the target customer market into account. Social media won’t help much if you are selling to fortune 500 companies but could be highly effective dealing with teenagers.

You can find out more of Matt’s marketing ideas at:
http://heinzmarketing.com/

Download the sound(right click and save as link) : Download

NOTE: Check out the complete podcast directory of discussions with entrepreneurs. If you would like to be a guest on Entrepreneurs Northwest, to talk about your business venture, contact Michael Surkan.

22 December 2010

Today on Bear Radio: Bear markets are bad for liberty

In this episode Alan Hall explains how factionalism and authoritarianism always increase during the negative move of bear markets. As people become more fearful they look to leaders who will protect them and gladly accept greater limits to their freedoms. Alan’s in-depth socionomics study on authoritarianism shows a revealing correlation between bear markets and authoritarian tendencies. It turns out that fear itself is something to be very afraid of.

You can read Alan’s study on authoritarianism here:
http://www.socionomics.net/PDF/Authoritarianism-Free-Update.pdf

You can find out more about socionomics at http://www.socionomics.net.

Download the sound(right click and save as link) : Download

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear radio: Posh neighborhoods beware – the housing bust is heading your way

In this episode housing blogger Patrick Killelea explains why real-estate prices still have a long ways to fall in the tonier communities. Prices fell faster in poor areas where people live paycheque to paycheque. The more well heeled home-owner has assets to burn through, and it takes them longer to get desperate enough to take losses. Patrick also talks about how the primary problem is the masses of bad debt, out of relation to incomes, which still hasn’t been written down throughout the economy. In Patrick’s view, the cozy relationships between banks and government have made the financial crisis what it is. The only thing government efforts to subsidize housing (or anything else, like education) accomplish is to drive up prices.

20 December 2010

Job Search Tales: Take control of your job search - pay for placement

In this episode Scott Avidon talks about how his efforts to offer a commission for a successful job referral has resulted in an abundance of interviews and job offers. Ironically, most people who contact Scott with job opportunities don’t want to be compensated, but the very act of offering a commission has gotten Scott a lot of welcome attention, even leading to an interview on CNN. Scott has a great background in creative product development and marketing but it wasn’t getting him very far in his job search until he began his unorthodox job search approach. Scott talks about how the competitive job market has made it critical for candidates be creative to stand out from the crowd.

You can check out Scott’s web site and CNN interview here:
http://scottavidon.com/

Download the sound(right click and save as link) : Download

NOTE: Please contact Michael if you are interested in being a guest on "Tales from the job search trenches" podcasts. Michael would like to discuss your job search strategy, and brainstorm ways to improve it with you.

17 December 2010

Outsourcing Success By Pretending You Aren’t.

In this Practical Software show, SEP group member Mike Murphy, Leadership Coach and Project Management Mentor, talks about what it took to get the off-shore outsourcing projects he’s managed to work smoothly. Mike explains that the key to off-shore success is to not treat it as if it is outsourcing. Make the off-shore group a part of your team. Get to know them. Involve them in decisions and communicate with them as regularly and freely as you would with people in your own company. The same things that lead to successful engineering projects by internal teams are the same things that work with outsourced teams. The big mistake is to think there is a difference.

Download the sound(right click and save as link) : Download

You can find all the Optimistic Bear shows here: Software

You can find all the Entrepreneurs Northwest shows here: Entrepreneurs Northwest

15 December 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Deflation – You aint seen nothin yet!

In this episode special guest Jim Mosquera explains how the financial crisis has barely even begun and that massive deflation lies ahead. By explaining how money and credit work Jim outlines what caused the financial crisis and why policy makers are powerless to prevent even greater collapses in asset values. When looking for a bottom in stocks start thinking about returning to 1982.

You can check out Jim’s book on the financial crisis and how to survive it here:
http://www.EscapingOz.com

If you would like to learn more about deflation, listen to the in-depth Deflation 101 podcast.
http://bit.ly/deflation101

10 December 2010

SEP Radio: Don't let your children grow up to be developers

This is tongue in cheek, but I think the question about what careers we would recommend our children go into is a valid one. In this episode we discuss whether software engineering still a career we would suggest young people take on? Sometimes I wonder if the sheer excitement, and adventure, of programming is a thing of the past.

You can find more information about our show guests here:
Ken Lassesen - http://lassesen.com/
Stephen F. Heffner - http://pennington.com/

09 December 2010

Introducing the LinkedIn Deflation Study Group

I just created the Deflation Study Group on LinkedIn. You are welcome to join, and pass the information along. This is an open group free to anyone who wishes to join. This is a place to discuss all things related to deflation. What is it? What causes it? Is it very likely? What are the best strategies to cope, or even profit, with it?

http://linkd.in/deflationsg

By the way, I notice that there are only TWO groups that even come up on LinkedIn when you search for “deflation” but dozens of groups appear when you search for “inflation”. It would seem that few people see deflation as a real possibility.

If you are looking for more information on the subject you can check out my in-depth Deflation 101 presentation.

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows

08 December 2010

This Week on Bear radio: The bubble in student loans

In this episode we talk about how government subsidies have created a bubble in education that is eerily similar to what happened with housing. Prices are rising and unscrupulous lenders are pushing government backed loans for dubious educations. We also ask whether the financial statements of CitiGroup can be trusted.

This show is sponsored by:

Charlesfund

04 December 2010

EPNW: Are your employees living up to their potential?

In this episode Bobby Bakshi explains that unless your employees are fully engaged, and inspired, by the mission of your company that they will only be living up to a fraction of their real potential. It's the mark of a true business leader that they can find ways to have each team member play to their unique strengths, and strive to achieve excellence. Luckily, these management skills can be learned and there are lots of new tools that make it easier than ever to uncover the hidden talents of your staff.

You can check out Bobby's ideas for building inspired work teams here:
http://resonantinsights.com/

03 December 2010

Job Search Tales: Know thyself and the job will follow

In this episode Teresa Dahl explains how finding a good job requires a good dose of self discovery and positive attitude. If you aren't confident in yourself, or what you want, why should an employer feel good about having you on the team? Focussing on the companies, roles, and managers, that fit you well may limit the over-all options but actually increase your chances of landing a job by allowing you to put in the quality effort of networking and research needed to land a job. It even pays to be honest, telling employers what you really believe your strengths and weaknesses are. No one trusts a person who says they are perfect.

You can find out more of Teresa's ideas about careers here:
http://dahlassociates.com/

02 December 2010

Job Search Tales: A resume is only the beginning

In this episode Kelly Harrington explains that although a resume is a necessary component in a job search, it is not sufficient to open doors or land jobs. Resumes just don’t work as well as they used to. Increased competition from mass unemployment and automated resume processing tools at employers often result in resumes just going into a black hole. Yes, build a good resume, but don’t spend a lot of time obsessing about it (even professionals disagree on the best styles), and DO NOT rely on it to get interviews.

You can check out Kelly’s ideas about job searches and building careers at:
http://careermaxgroup.com/

You can find information about creating great resumes here:
http://theresumethatgetsresults.com/

EPNW: Pressing the flesh in Seattle: There is no substitute for face-to-face networking to

In this episode Ralf Wiebeck shares his insights on how networking events (like the ones he organizes) can be the key to finding leads and growing businesses. Don’t spread yourself too thin… It is better to keep going to the same networking events month after month, establishing firm relationships, than to keep going to new meetups every week. It’s not the size of your rolodex that counts, but the quality of the relationships you have with the people you know.
In this episode

You can find out, and sign-up for, the business networking events Ralf (and his wife Amy) host every week in Seattle here:
http://www.meetup.com/Casual-Business-Professionals/

EPNW: Social media - It's Where the Market Is

In this episode Neal Schaffer explains that marketing through social media may take a lot of effort, but that every business MUST take advantage of it. Social media is where customers are spending an increasing amount of their time, and no company can ignore that. Even better, social media provides opportunities for business intelligence and lead development that never existed before. For an example, Neal shares tips on how LinkedIn can be an incredibly powerful marketing tool when properly utilized. Not all social media venues will work well for all companies, but a good marketing strategy, tailored to your business needs, will pay off handsomely.

You can check out more of Neal's social media marketing advice at:
http://windmillnetworking.com/

01 December 2010

This Week on Bear radio: The message from Ireland is clear – debt write-downs must be avoid

The Irish bailout by European nations and the IMF is following the same pattern we’ve seen throughout the entire financial crisis. In this episode we discuss the fact that whether it is consumer mortgages or sovereign debt issues, the response has been the same over the last few years – do anything and everything to avoid making lenders take a loss. Banks will lower monthly mortgage payments for struggling borrowers for a year but actually tack the difference with what is actually owed to increase the over-all loan balance. Governments will bail-out corporations so that bond-holders don’t have to suffer the indignity of a loss. Who cares if the borrowers will re-default later down the road, just so long as no one has to recognize the loss in the here and now.

This show is sponsored by:
Charlesfund

24 November 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Investment advice for time travellers – hindsight isn’t everything

In this week’s episode we discuss how investing can be difficult even with the benefit of a time machine and perfect hindsight. We also discuss the jitters in the European debt markets, Irish political instability and the recent volatility in municipal bonds. As if any more proof were needed, our commentators point out that the recent run on deposits with Allied Irish Banks despite the fact it had been given a clean bill of health by regulators earlier this year underscores the fact that policy makers lie.

21 November 2010

Linked:Seattle makes the news!

Wow! Our Linked:Seattle meetups were written up in the Seattle Times. Our monthly gatherings may have started as just an ad-hoc experiment this summer, but they have grown so much they are getting attention from the media.

http://bit.ly/lsintime

This article does a great job of discussing how Linked:Seattle meetups can be useful for job seekers, but it’s useful to point out that our gatherings tend to be very broad, drawing in business professionals and entrepreneurs as well as those seeking employment. Actually, this is what makes our group so unique (and useful).

When it comes to meetups and social networking, be sure to check out the video Susan J. Moore and I made with advice on how to make the most of networking events.

NOTE: Click here for a list of all the Linked:Seattle radio show recordings. You can also check out my own "Entrepreneurs Northwest" podcast shows (http://bit.ly/epnwfeed).

19 November 2010

Job search tales: The brand of you - take charge of your image on the internet to help your career

In this episode Stephen Rose explains how everyone has a brand (or image) on the internet, whether they want one or not. The oft-told advice to watch what you say on the web is certainly important, but Stephen suggests that social media provides an opportunity for everyone to develop their career (and find jobs) by purposefully building their brand. A resume is just not enough to find a job anymore, your career will depend on how you are perceived on the web. Stephen recommends creating your own blog as the place to start with managing your brand, allowing you to show your expertise and to serve as a tool for making connections.

You can follow Stephen on twitter here:
http://twitter.com/stephenlrose

Here is the IT Pro community Stephen manages at Microsoft:
http://www.microsoft.com/springboard

SEP Radio: Can agile methodology be applied to all software development projects?

I’ve been involved with software development for many years and very rarely have I ever seen “agile” process methodology work out. Could this be because of the nature of the software development projects I tend to specialize in or is it just that none of the product teams I have worked with understood agile methodology properly? In other words, are there some software projects where agile methodology will never work due to the very nature of what the software is? Listen to experts from the Software Engineering Productivity group on LinkedIn discuss where it makes sense to use agile methodology.

Our guests include:

17 November 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Is perception really reality when it comes to economics?

In this episode we discuss whether market perceptions of weakness in Ireland (or other nations) can force defaults. We also discuss how Quantitative Easing by the Federal Reserve is already backfiring with rising interest rates and a falling dollar. The show closes with a chat about the re-emergence of debtors prison in the United States.

This show is sponsored by:

Charlesfund

13 November 2010

EPNW: Putting it on the line – social media success comes through expressing yourself

In this episode Chris Pirillo explains how business success through social media requires putting your personality out for all the world to see. Bland content, lacking in personality, won’t go very far in a world crowded with media. Chris also tells how the quickest way to get people following you is to start following others, and joining in their conversations. The art of marketing through social media is a messy one, but with a willingness to lay things on the line and actually talk with people on-line can lead to success.

You can check out Chris' web site here: http://chris.pirillo.com/

12 November 2010

SEP Radio: Client-side PC apps - an endangered species?

With the huge efforts being put into web and mobile apps these days it would seem that client-side PC software has become an endangered species. Is anyone out there still writing NEW client-side applications? Listen to experts from the Software Engineering Productivity group on LinkedIn discuss the future of client applications.

Our guests include:

Listen to internet radio with Software Engineering on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

EPNW: The entrepreneur transition doctor is in

In this episode Michele Mattia talks about how her own experience of transitioning to becoming an author, speaker and life/business coach from the tech industry mirrors what many people are going through these days as they try to re-define themselves as entrepreneurs. There are no miracle cures for successfully transitioning to entrepreneurship, but it’s hard to go wrong to start by following your passion.

I couldn’t help but think of Doctor Mumford, and his effective methods of helping people find their own answers, during my conversation with Michele. I’ve always wished I could find an sympathetic, yet helpful, Dr Mumford in the real world, and now I have.

You can check out Michele’s web site here:
http://www.michelemattia.com/Home.html

10 November 2010

This Week on Bear radio: The recent Bitcoin bubble and the psychology of jumping back into high risk investments

In this episode of the Optimistic Bear show, marking our first anniversary, we discuss the recent collapse of the Bitcoin bubble, the “prosperity certificates” of Canada’s William Aberhart and the history of failed currencies. We also delve into the psychology of bubble investing, and propose some theories as to why investors seem so willing to get burnt with the same bad investments again and again. Lastly, we explore Harry Brown’s 16 golden rules of financial safety.

07 November 2010

EPNW: Zen and the art of making money

After 30 years of being an entrepreneur in the banking business (starting no less than 3 banks) Jesse Tam shares the principals he has learned about making money. In this episode Jesse explains that getting to know one’s own values, and motivations, is the first step on the path to wealth. Understanding the true “value” of money is a philosophical journey that everyone has to take on their own path to success. Life may not be fair, but with Jesse’s tips each of us can carve out our own bit of happiness.

04 November 2010

Self re-invention through social media: the case study

In this episode Bob Fine recalls how unemployment led him down a path of discovering the power of social media, and a new world of possibilities leading to setting up conferences around the world. It sounds a little like déjà vu, seeing as how I’ve gone down this same path myself.

Now Bob has even put together a book highlighting experiences of numerous people who have re-discovered themselves, and found opportunities, just like Bob.

You can check out Bob’s book here at http://thebestofsocial.com/.

03 November 2010

This Week on Bear radio: What does the rise of Republican power in congress mean for the economy?

With election results coming in from across America today, we discuss what impact change in congressional leadership will have on the economy. In this episode we also ponder whether the Republicans will regret their victory if the Great Recession has a double dip. Politicians may have relatively little impact on the economy, one way or the other, but they get the blame when things go wrong as well as acclaim when there is prosperity.

You can check out our special guest Chaster Johnson's unique investment fund, run by the investors themselves at Charlefund.

01 November 2010

Making the most of Linked:Seattle meetups

Michael Surkan and Susan J. Moore discuss how a little preparation can turn the large Linked:Seattle meetups into successful social networking events. Whether you are an executive, professional, entrepreneur, job-seeker or recruiter, Linked:Seattle meetups offer one of the best ways to make valuable connections to help with your business or career needs. Anyone can join Linked:Seattle (http://bit.ly/LinkedSeattle).

Don’t forget to tell your friends about the upcoming meetup. You can check out the attendee list, and RSVP yourself here:
http://bit.ly/lsmeetup

A special thanks to Greg Palmer for producing this excellent video.

NOTE: Click here for a list of all the Linked:Seattle radio show recordings. You can also check out my own "Entrepreneurs Northwest" podcast shows (http://bit.ly/epnwfeed).

29 October 2010

SEP Radio: Is multi-threaded coding just a pipe dream?

Multi-core computing has been around for years yet many apps only work on a single core. Even processor intensive activities like DVD ripping and encoding are done in single threads with most apps. It seems as if there are only a minority of apps where companies decide that the market benefits from better performance merit putting up with the pain of multi-threaded development. Is multi-threading something developer just do in the software they write as a matter of course, or is it just too difficult to justify the cost? Listen to experts from the Software Engineering Productivity group on LinkedIn discuss the future of parallel computing.

Guests include:

EPNW: Smelling the roses - how to succeed in sales by slowing down

In this episode Travis Brandt explains how sales is a process that can’t be short-circuited. As stressed as entrepreneurs might be about getting that next paying customer, shortcuts to sales will only lead to disappointment. Small businesses don’t have to resort to Glengarry Glen Ross type sales strategies to be successful, but tenacity and a methodical approach will lead to results. We also discuss how poor products and pricing are just excuses for poor salesmanship.

You can find more of Travis’ sales tips on his blog:
http://www.travisbrandt.com/

Download the sound(right click and save as link) : Download

NOTE: Check out the complete podcast directory of discussions with entrepreneurs. If you would like to be a guest on Entrepreneurs Northwest, to talk about your business venture, contact Michael Surkan.

27 October 2010

This Week on Bear radio: The US health-care dog wagging the tale

In this episode we discuss how stories of abuses in the American medical system are egregious, and shockingly easy to find. However, such atrocities of over-billing and fraud are actually a symptom of a deeper problem: the lack of a free market with responsible customers.

20 October 2010

This Week on Bear radio: No investment strategy works 100% of the time

In this episode we discuss how even the best investment strategies, founded on the most exhaustive historical data sets, can still go horribly wrong. No trend lasts forever. Even theoretically reliable seasonal cycles can throw investors for a loop.

You can check out our special guest Chaster Johnson's unique investment fund, run by the investors themselves at Charlesfund.

15 October 2010

PS: Say goodbye to common code-base for mobile platforms

In this episode the development team at gist.com, and their partner sensobi.com, discuss the challenges of developing for mobile platforms. The iPhone is still a must, but it now impossible to ignore Android. For some applications the Blackberry is a must as well. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet to mobile cross-platform development. Both Gist and Sensobi have found that it is important to use native features to build the best app possible for each device rather than trying to target the lowest common denominator in the hope of having a transportable code-base.

You can check out more details of our guests here.

Steve Newman, CTO Gist.com - www.gist.com/stevepnewman
Steve Orth, Sr Mobile Developer, www.gist.com
Ajay Kulkarni, Founder & CEO, www.sensobi.com
Andy Cheung, Founder & CTO, www.sensobi.com

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

13 October 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Pick your poison – investing requires taking a stand

In this episode we discuss how there is no such thing as a “safe” investment, and that people have to pick which economic scenario they believe in since no asset will perform well in all circumstances. We also talk about the crisis with mortgage processing, with shoddy paperwork and robo-signing. It’s hard to feel sorry for either the lenders or their delinquent borrowers. It’s just unfortunate that we will all pay the price of an exacerbated real-estate downturn as the mess slowly gets cleaned up in the years to come.

You can check out our special guest Chaster Johnson's unique investment fund, run by the investors themselves at http://charlesfund.com.

09 October 2010

Casting the first stone...

I may be bearish on real-estate (and have been since the early 2000s when I sold my home), but I don’t blame anyone for the housing bubble, or its collapse. It’s not the fault of evil bankers, fraudulent real-estate agents or incompetent regulators. Neither was the bubble the fault of homeowners cashing out equity or hoping to build a nest egg.

Instead, I believe that the credit bubble (of which housing was just one part) is simply the result of broad societal shifts in optimism and pessimism. One can no more complain about these generational patterns of sentiment than they can the ebb and flow of ocean tides.

The thing about manias is that nearly everyone is caught up in them, whether they wish to be or not. The president of an investment bank MUST play along with the same risky investments as other investment banks or they will find themselves fired by investors who are displeased that their bank is making lower profits than its peers. Ratings analysts have to play along, using optimistic assumptions, or they will find that competing agencies (who are willing to use rosy estimates) get all the business. Politicians who appoint rigorous regulators will find themselves voted out of office by the masses who are upset that the regulatory agencies are giving the companies they own shares in a hard time.

Property appraisers who use conservative valuations will find that no one brings them any appraisal business. During a mania even consumers are forced with having to either buy at irrational prices or sit out of the market for what could be decades. That’s not to mention the peer-pressure that results from seeing friends, family and associated get rich by participating in the feeding frenzy. It’s a strange soul who can stay emotionally everyone they know is telling them they are fools for not taking advantage of the great wealth generation machine sweeping the land. Even retirees relying on poorly funded pension plans had a role by putting pressure on fund managers to take risks that jeopardized what meager funding there was.

No, I don’t blame the lowly mortgage holders who took out zero interest loans with balloon payments. The simple fact is that everyone in society played their part in the great credit bubble of the last 20 years and thus no one in particular deserves the blame. To put this in perspective, what we have witnessed with the great credit bust of the early 21st century is nothing more than the playing out of a generational cycle of social attitudes which oscillates between fear and prudence to unbridled optimism and a willingness to shoulder risk (also referred to as a Kondratieff wave).

Now that the credit bubble has been pierced we are beginning the painful process of restarting the great cycle all over again.

07 October 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Currency devaluation as the next magic cure to economic doldrums

In this episode we talk about the growing popularity for currency devaluations around the world. Japan is just the most recent nation to get on the bandwagon with threats to intervene in currency markets to keep the yen down. Ironically, we discuss how it is strong currencies which often lead to the best outcomes.

29 September 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Are renters throwing money away?

In this episode a guest from California asks if renters are just throwing money away. We discuss how bullish sentiment is at extremes by some measures, even though the recent stock rally is anemic and within the same trading range we’ve seen all year. Our conversation also turns to how the very fact the Federal Reserve is considering a SECOND round of quantitative easing demonstrates that it’s power over the economy is limited (i.e. otherwise a second attempt wouldn’t be necessary).

24 September 2010

This Week on Bear radio: No idea is too wacky in the bizarro world of central banking these days

In this episode we suggest some more crazy ideas the Federal Reserve can consider to stimulate the economy. Since central bankers seem so willing to consider absurd policy measures these days we thought we’d help by sharing some doozies. We also talk about what impacts a deeper recession might have on the tech industry, hos spending would change and how which companies would win or lose.

15 September 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Deadbeat lending is sweet when someone else guarantees the loan

In this episode Doug Eberhardt joins us to talk about the credit bubble of the last decade, and how those who made risky loans (which clearly couldn't be paid back) may not have been so dumb after all. In many cases there were implicit guarantees on bad loans. Why not invest in Greek bonds if you know that Germany would never allow a default for fear of wrecking the Euro? Why not invest in Fannie Mae bonds if you know the Federal Government would never allow such a critical part of the financial system to default?

In addition, we discuss how investing in Gold is a good idea for security but not as a path to wealth.

You can check out Doug’s web site for more insights on deflation and advice in gold investing.

11 September 2010

job search tales: Making the most of networking events

In this episode, Paul Anderson shares his strategies for getting the most out of networking events. There are numerous social mixers and gatherings for professionals to attend, but you need a plan to really benefit from them. The work starts before you even go to a networking event by 1) picking the right events for you and 2) going prepared with goals and research that will allow you to be effective. Paul also offers strategies for how to strike up conversations, and kindle relationships that will help achieve your career goals.

You can find out about Paul’s ideas and career strategy courses here:
http://prolango.com

NOTE: Please contact Michael if you are interested in being a guest on "Tales from the job search trenches" podcasts. Michael would like to discuss your job search strategy, and brainstorm ways to improve it with you.

10 September 2010

job search tales: Grades alone aren't enough to get a job

In this episode Dan Hallak shares his experiences helping college students plan their careers, helping them develop strategies to build portfolios, and industry contacts, long before they graduate. It's not good enough to just have good grades anymore. College grads have to have a focussed career strategy. Luckily, Dan explains how colleges offer great resources to help both students, and professionals in the broader community, develop career strategies. Students can even "double-dip", using their course-work as tools to build those all critical relationships with the business world.

You can check out more about the career services offered by Dan, and his colleagues at Bellevue College here:

http://bellevuecollege.edu/careers/

08 September 2010

Mosques and Burning Quarans: Legality v. Respect

After sympathizing with both views on the proposed mosque two blocks from ground zero, Thomas Sowell has proposed a perspective which I can fully support. It should not be illegal to create an Islamic center near ground zero, but it is profoundly insensitive of the Muslim community to even consider it.

Ironically, there are vehement calls for the Floridian pastor to show respect for Islam by not burning Quarans on September 11th. Unless those demanding that he not follow through with his plans are also pleading that the Muslim community similarly show respect by not building the proposed community center in New York, they are hypocrits. Some have even gone so far as to say that there may be vengeful killings of Americans in the middle east in reprisal for the Quaran burning in Florida. If this happens, it is merely a confirmation that there is a lack of tolerance among muslims and a dual standard.

Bibles have been burned by Muslims, and Christians have not reacted by killing Muslims. Nor have the people currently decrying the burning of the Quaran spoken out against the bible burnings by Muslims. If there are truly two separate Muslim communities, radically violent extremists and peace-loving, then it would be helpful to hear the peace-loving side publicly decrying the violent side.

In matters of principle, we should be consistent. Respect for others often extends beyond the letter of the law. The Muslim community should refrain from building their community center near Ground Zero for the same reason that they feel the Quarans should not be burned by the pastor in Florida. Each side stands to gain respect only if they demonstrate it themselves. Above all, the United States government should, if anything, entreat both sides to be respectful, and fund neither. By funding the mid-east trip of the 'Ground Zero' Imam, and openly supporting the Islamic Center while criticizing the Quaran-burning, our government is fueling the flames of intolerance by applying a flagrantly biased dual standard.

This Week on Bear radio: Does perception make reality?

In this episode we ponder whether perception alone drives economic trends. Special guest, fund manager Chaster Johnson, challenges the Optimistic Bear's view that the financial system bail-outs not only worked but have benefited more than the fat-cat executives at banks.

Check out Chaster's unique investment fund, run by the investors themselves at http://charlesfund.com.