22 January 2009

Deflation 101: the podcast

If you ever wanted to understand deflation, and how it is effecting the economy, I have put together a comprehensive and in-depth lecture on the subject. My "Deflation 101" podcast explores what deflation is, why we are experiencing it, and why it is going to last for years to come.

I have also built a slide deck, with numerous charts, to accompany the podcast.

There is also an episode of the Optimistic Bear internet radio show that offers a primer on deflation. If you want to participate in the community discussion about this subject you can join the Deflation Study Group on LinkedIn.

1 comment:

  1. Ok, I read your slides. I have a problem with this bit

    Consequences of stopping deflation would result in IMMEDIATE hyper-inflation –Investors would dump government securities the minute the government began significant monetization

    This is obviously wrong. If it wasn't obvious before, it should be obvious now. The Fed has already started monetizing debt and it has announced that it will be buying treasuries.

    Also keep in mind that you can't get hyper-inflation from this kind of scenario. Especially when the US is the worlds largest economy and the holder of the reserve currency. You might get inflation, maybe even low double digit inflation but not hyperinflation. Hyperinflation only occurs when the governenment is massively printing and at an accelerated rate. Usually it occurs in a time of war. Some inflation would probably be beneficial anyway as long as incomes rose.

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