Pomp & Surkanstance

01 November 2010

Making the most of Linked:Seattle meetups

Michael Surkan and Susan J. Moore discuss how a little preparation can turn the large Linked:Seattle meetups into successful social networking events. Whether you are an executive, professional, entrepreneur, job-seeker or recruiter, Linked:Seattle meetups offer one of the best ways to make valuable connections to help with your business or career needs. Anyone can join Linked:Seattle (http://bit.ly/LinkedSeattle).

Don’t forget to tell your friends about the upcoming meetup. You can check out the attendee list, and RSVP yourself here:
http://bit.ly/lsmeetup

A special thanks to Greg Palmer for producing this excellent video.

NOTE: Click here for a list of all the Linked:Seattle radio show recordings. You can also check out my own "Entrepreneurs Northwest" podcast shows (http://bit.ly/epnwfeed).

29 October 2010

SEP Radio: Is multi-threaded coding just a pipe dream?

Multi-core computing has been around for years yet many apps only work on a single core. Even processor intensive activities like DVD ripping and encoding are done in single threads with most apps. It seems as if there are only a minority of apps where companies decide that the market benefits from better performance merit putting up with the pain of multi-threaded development. Is multi-threading something developer just do in the software they write as a matter of course, or is it just too difficult to justify the cost? Listen to experts from the Software Engineering Productivity group on LinkedIn discuss the future of parallel computing.

Guests include:

Download the sound(right click and save as link) : Download

You can find all the Optimistic Bear shows here: Software

You can find all the Entrepreneurs Northwest shows here: Entrepreneurs Northwest

EPNW: Smelling the roses - how to succeed in sales by slowing down

In this episode Travis Brandt explains how sales is a process that can’t be short-circuited. As stressed as entrepreneurs might be about getting that next paying customer, shortcuts to sales will only lead to disappointment. Small businesses don’t have to resort to Glengarry Glen Ross type sales strategies to be successful, but tenacity and a methodical approach will lead to results. We also discuss how poor products and pricing are just excuses for poor salesmanship.

You can find more of Travis’ sales tips on his blog:
http://www.travisbrandt.com/

Download the sound(right click and save as link) : Download

NOTE: Check out the complete podcast directory of discussions with entrepreneurs. If you would like to be a guest on Entrepreneurs Northwest, to talk about your business venture, contact Michael Surkan.

27 October 2010

This Week on Bear radio: The US health-care dog wagging the tale

In this episode we discuss how stories of abuses in the American medical system are egregious, and shockingly easy to find. However, such atrocities of over-billing and fraud are actually a symptom of a deeper problem: the lack of a free market with responsible customers.

Download the sound(right click and save as link) : Download

You can find all the Optimistic Bear shows here: Optimistic Bear

You can find all the Entrepreneurs Northwest shows here: Entrepreneurs Northwest

20 October 2010

This Week on Bear radio: No investment strategy works 100% of the time

In this episode we discuss how even the best investment strategies, founded on the most exhaustive historical data sets, can still go horribly wrong. No trend lasts forever. Even theoretically reliable seasonal cycles can throw investors for a loop.

You can check out our special guest Chaster Johnson's unique investment fund, run by the investors themselves at Charlesfund.

15 October 2010

PS: Say goodbye to common code-base for mobile platforms

In this episode the development team at gist.com, and their partner sensobi.com, discuss the challenges of developing for mobile platforms. The iPhone is still a must, but it now impossible to ignore Android. For some applications the Blackberry is a must as well. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet to mobile cross-platform development. Both Gist and Sensobi have found that it is important to use native features to build the best app possible for each device rather than trying to target the lowest common denominator in the hope of having a transportable code-base.

You can check out more details of our guests here.

Steve Newman, CTO Gist.com - www.gist.com/stevepnewman
Steve Orth, Sr Mobile Developer, www.gist.com
Ajay Kulkarni, Founder & CEO, www.sensobi.com
Andy Cheung, Founder & CTO, www.sensobi.com

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

13 October 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Pick your poison – investing requires taking a stand

In this episode we discuss how there is no such thing as a “safe” investment, and that people have to pick which economic scenario they believe in since no asset will perform well in all circumstances. We also talk about the crisis with mortgage processing, with shoddy paperwork and robo-signing. It’s hard to feel sorry for either the lenders or their delinquent borrowers. It’s just unfortunate that we will all pay the price of an exacerbated real-estate downturn as the mess slowly gets cleaned up in the years to come.

You can check out our special guest Chaster Johnson's unique investment fund, run by the investors themselves at http://charlesfund.com.

09 October 2010

Casting the first stone...

I may be bearish on real-estate (and have been since the early 2000s when I sold my home), but I don’t blame anyone for the housing bubble, or its collapse. It’s not the fault of evil bankers, fraudulent real-estate agents or incompetent regulators. Neither was the bubble the fault of homeowners cashing out equity or hoping to build a nest egg.

Instead, I believe that the credit bubble (of which housing was just one part) is simply the result of broad societal shifts in optimism and pessimism. One can no more complain about these generational patterns of sentiment than they can the ebb and flow of ocean tides.

The thing about manias is that nearly everyone is caught up in them, whether they wish to be or not. The president of an investment bank MUST play along with the same risky investments as other investment banks or they will find themselves fired by investors who are displeased that their bank is making lower profits than its peers. Ratings analysts have to play along, using optimistic assumptions, or they will find that competing agencies (who are willing to use rosy estimates) get all the business. Politicians who appoint rigorous regulators will find themselves voted out of office by the masses who are upset that the regulatory agencies are giving the companies they own shares in a hard time.

Property appraisers who use conservative valuations will find that no one brings them any appraisal business. During a mania even consumers are forced with having to either buy at irrational prices or sit out of the market for what could be decades. That’s not to mention the peer-pressure that results from seeing friends, family and associated get rich by participating in the feeding frenzy. It’s a strange soul who can stay emotionally everyone they know is telling them they are fools for not taking advantage of the great wealth generation machine sweeping the land. Even retirees relying on poorly funded pension plans had a role by putting pressure on fund managers to take risks that jeopardized what meager funding there was.

No, I don’t blame the lowly mortgage holders who took out zero interest loans with balloon payments. The simple fact is that everyone in society played their part in the great credit bubble of the last 20 years and thus no one in particular deserves the blame. To put this in perspective, what we have witnessed with the great credit bust of the early 21st century is nothing more than the playing out of a generational cycle of social attitudes which oscillates between fear and prudence to unbridled optimism and a willingness to shoulder risk (also referred to as a Kondratieff wave).

Now that the credit bubble has been pierced we are beginning the painful process of restarting the great cycle all over again.

07 October 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Currency devaluation as the next magic cure to economic doldrums

In this episode we talk about the growing popularity for currency devaluations around the world. Japan is just the most recent nation to get on the bandwagon with threats to intervene in currency markets to keep the yen down. Ironically, we discuss how it is strong currencies which often lead to the best outcomes.

29 September 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Are renters throwing money away?

In this episode a guest from California asks if renters are just throwing money away. We discuss how bullish sentiment is at extremes by some measures, even though the recent stock rally is anemic and within the same trading range we’ve seen all year. Our conversation also turns to how the very fact the Federal Reserve is considering a SECOND round of quantitative easing demonstrates that it’s power over the economy is limited (i.e. otherwise a second attempt wouldn’t be necessary).

24 September 2010

This Week on Bear radio: No idea is too wacky in the bizarro world of central banking these days

In this episode we suggest some more crazy ideas the Federal Reserve can consider to stimulate the economy. Since central bankers seem so willing to consider absurd policy measures these days we thought we’d help by sharing some doozies. We also talk about what impacts a deeper recession might have on the tech industry, hos spending would change and how which companies would win or lose.

15 September 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Deadbeat lending is sweet when someone else guarantees the loan

In this episode Doug Eberhardt joins us to talk about the credit bubble of the last decade, and how those who made risky loans (which clearly couldn't be paid back) may not have been so dumb after all. In many cases there were implicit guarantees on bad loans. Why not invest in Greek bonds if you know that Germany would never allow a default for fear of wrecking the Euro? Why not invest in Fannie Mae bonds if you know the Federal Government would never allow such a critical part of the financial system to default?

In addition, we discuss how investing in Gold is a good idea for security but not as a path to wealth.

You can check out Doug’s web site for more insights on deflation and advice in gold investing.

11 September 2010

job search tales: Making the most of networking events

In this episode, Paul Anderson shares his strategies for getting the most out of networking events. There are numerous social mixers and gatherings for professionals to attend, but you need a plan to really benefit from them. The work starts before you even go to a networking event by 1) picking the right events for you and 2) going prepared with goals and research that will allow you to be effective. Paul also offers strategies for how to strike up conversations, and kindle relationships that will help achieve your career goals.

You can find out about Paul’s ideas and career strategy courses here:
http://prolango.com

NOTE: Please contact Michael if you are interested in being a guest on "Tales from the job search trenches" podcasts. Michael would like to discuss your job search strategy, and brainstorm ways to improve it with you.

10 September 2010

job search tales: Grades alone aren't enough to get a job

In this episode Dan Hallak shares his experiences helping college students plan their careers, helping them develop strategies to build portfolios, and industry contacts, long before they graduate. It's not good enough to just have good grades anymore. College grads have to have a focussed career strategy. Luckily, Dan explains how colleges offer great resources to help both students, and professionals in the broader community, develop career strategies. Students can even "double-dip", using their course-work as tools to build those all critical relationships with the business world.

You can check out more about the career services offered by Dan, and his colleagues at Bellevue College here:

http://bellevuecollege.edu/careers/

08 September 2010

Mosques and Burning Quarans: Legality v. Respect

After sympathizing with both views on the proposed mosque two blocks from ground zero, Thomas Sowell has proposed a perspective which I can fully support. It should not be illegal to create an Islamic center near ground zero, but it is profoundly insensitive of the Muslim community to even consider it.

Ironically, there are vehement calls for the Floridian pastor to show respect for Islam by not burning Quarans on September 11th. Unless those demanding that he not follow through with his plans are also pleading that the Muslim community similarly show respect by not building the proposed community center in New York, they are hypocrits. Some have even gone so far as to say that there may be vengeful killings of Americans in the middle east in reprisal for the Quaran burning in Florida. If this happens, it is merely a confirmation that there is a lack of tolerance among muslims and a dual standard.

Bibles have been burned by Muslims, and Christians have not reacted by killing Muslims. Nor have the people currently decrying the burning of the Quaran spoken out against the bible burnings by Muslims. If there are truly two separate Muslim communities, radically violent extremists and peace-loving, then it would be helpful to hear the peace-loving side publicly decrying the violent side.

In matters of principle, we should be consistent. Respect for others often extends beyond the letter of the law. The Muslim community should refrain from building their community center near Ground Zero for the same reason that they feel the Quarans should not be burned by the pastor in Florida. Each side stands to gain respect only if they demonstrate it themselves. Above all, the United States government should, if anything, entreat both sides to be respectful, and fund neither. By funding the mid-east trip of the 'Ground Zero' Imam, and openly supporting the Islamic Center while criticizing the Quaran-burning, our government is fueling the flames of intolerance by applying a flagrantly biased dual standard.

This Week on Bear radio: Does perception make reality?

In this episode we ponder whether perception alone drives economic trends. Special guest, fund manager Chaster Johnson, challenges the Optimistic Bear's view that the financial system bail-outs not only worked but have benefited more than the fat-cat executives at banks.

Check out Chaster's unique investment fund, run by the investors themselves at http://charlesfund.com.

03 September 2010

Support Linked:Seattle

02 September 2010

EPNW: Look ma, it's TV on the internet!

Traditional media firms may be moving at a glacial pace, timidly trying to find their way in the Internet age, but not www.revision3.com. In this episode of Entrepreneurs Northwest Jim Louderback explains how his startup is already profitably offering internet TV, producing it's own content and developing sponsors from companies big and small. Better still, Revision3 is able to offer sponsors actual viewership guarantees.

01 September 2010

The art of the delayed write-off

This information from a bank insider does a great job illustrating how much flexibility banks have in avoiding write-downs on their books with non-performing loans. It goes a long way to explaining why many lenders have been so incredibly tardy in foreclosing, and taking possession, of properties with delinquent loans.

Many people don't understand the magnitude within the banking industry to "Kick the Can" or "Extend and Pretend". We see a lot of this within the industry.

Banks with existing balance sheet issues (nonperforming loans) really don't want to recognize more loan issues because it could force the FDIC to close them down.

In that light, a bank can take a commercial real estate loan or a business line of credit having issues and do a 3 month extension at loan maturity or change loan payments to interest in an attempt to give the borrower with more time to work things out or bring more capital to the table.

It's not uncommon for a bank to do multiple extensions in the mode of working out a loan with principal reductions over time. I've been in the situation where extensions have lasted 1-2 years. In normal recessions, extensions have worked quite well because borrowers could take equity out of their house or sell stock market assets to cure the loan.

In my estimation, if every bank had the collateral of all loans accurately appraised and each loan’s loan grading was finely tuned for an expected loss based on financial performance and collateral values, the number of essentially bankrupt banks in this county would increase by a factor of 4-5 from the current level.

In other words, there is a potential pool of 2000-3000 banks that would be on the FDIC radar's for getting closed.

This Week on Bear radio: What makes a bear market politician?

In this episode we discuss the attributes of bear market politicians and identify the MOST successful bear market leaders of all times. It takes a different message and personality type to thrive in politics during challenging economic times.