Pomp & Surkanstance: September 2010

29 September 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Are renters throwing money away?

In this episode a guest from California asks if renters are just throwing money away. We discuss how bullish sentiment is at extremes by some measures, even though the recent stock rally is anemic and within the same trading range we’ve seen all year. Our conversation also turns to how the very fact the Federal Reserve is considering a SECOND round of quantitative easing demonstrates that it’s power over the economy is limited (i.e. otherwise a second attempt wouldn’t be necessary).

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You can find all the Optimistic Bear shows here: Optimistic Bear

You can find all the Entrepreneurs Northwest shows here: Entrepreneurs Northwest

24 September 2010

This Week on Bear radio: No idea is too wacky in the bizarro world of central banking these days

In this episode we suggest some more crazy ideas the Federal Reserve can consider to stimulate the economy. Since central bankers seem so willing to consider absurd policy measures these days we thought we’d help by sharing some doozies. We also talk about what impacts a deeper recession might have on the tech industry, hos spending would change and how which companies would win or lose.

15 September 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Deadbeat lending is sweet when someone else guarantees the loan

In this episode Doug Eberhardt joins us to talk about the credit bubble of the last decade, and how those who made risky loans (which clearly couldn't be paid back) may not have been so dumb after all. In many cases there were implicit guarantees on bad loans. Why not invest in Greek bonds if you know that Germany would never allow a default for fear of wrecking the Euro? Why not invest in Fannie Mae bonds if you know the Federal Government would never allow such a critical part of the financial system to default?

In addition, we discuss how investing in Gold is a good idea for security but not as a path to wealth.

You can check out Doug’s web site for more insights on deflation and advice in gold investing.

11 September 2010

job search tales: Making the most of networking events

In this episode, Paul Anderson shares his strategies for getting the most out of networking events. There are numerous social mixers and gatherings for professionals to attend, but you need a plan to really benefit from them. The work starts before you even go to a networking event by 1) picking the right events for you and 2) going prepared with goals and research that will allow you to be effective. Paul also offers strategies for how to strike up conversations, and kindle relationships that will help achieve your career goals.

You can find out about Paul’s ideas and career strategy courses here:
http://prolango.com

NOTE: Please contact Michael if you are interested in being a guest on "Tales from the job search trenches" podcasts. Michael would like to discuss your job search strategy, and brainstorm ways to improve it with you.

10 September 2010

job search tales: Grades alone aren't enough to get a job

In this episode Dan Hallak shares his experiences helping college students plan their careers, helping them develop strategies to build portfolios, and industry contacts, long before they graduate. It's not good enough to just have good grades anymore. College grads have to have a focussed career strategy. Luckily, Dan explains how colleges offer great resources to help both students, and professionals in the broader community, develop career strategies. Students can even "double-dip", using their course-work as tools to build those all critical relationships with the business world.

You can check out more about the career services offered by Dan, and his colleagues at Bellevue College here:

http://bellevuecollege.edu/careers/

08 September 2010

Mosques and Burning Quarans: Legality v. Respect

After sympathizing with both views on the proposed mosque two blocks from ground zero, Thomas Sowell has proposed a perspective which I can fully support. It should not be illegal to create an Islamic center near ground zero, but it is profoundly insensitive of the Muslim community to even consider it.

Ironically, there are vehement calls for the Floridian pastor to show respect for Islam by not burning Quarans on September 11th. Unless those demanding that he not follow through with his plans are also pleading that the Muslim community similarly show respect by not building the proposed community center in New York, they are hypocrits. Some have even gone so far as to say that there may be vengeful killings of Americans in the middle east in reprisal for the Quaran burning in Florida. If this happens, it is merely a confirmation that there is a lack of tolerance among muslims and a dual standard.

Bibles have been burned by Muslims, and Christians have not reacted by killing Muslims. Nor have the people currently decrying the burning of the Quaran spoken out against the bible burnings by Muslims. If there are truly two separate Muslim communities, radically violent extremists and peace-loving, then it would be helpful to hear the peace-loving side publicly decrying the violent side.

In matters of principle, we should be consistent. Respect for others often extends beyond the letter of the law. The Muslim community should refrain from building their community center near Ground Zero for the same reason that they feel the Quarans should not be burned by the pastor in Florida. Each side stands to gain respect only if they demonstrate it themselves. Above all, the United States government should, if anything, entreat both sides to be respectful, and fund neither. By funding the mid-east trip of the 'Ground Zero' Imam, and openly supporting the Islamic Center while criticizing the Quaran-burning, our government is fueling the flames of intolerance by applying a flagrantly biased dual standard.

This Week on Bear radio: Does perception make reality?

In this episode we ponder whether perception alone drives economic trends. Special guest, fund manager Chaster Johnson, challenges the Optimistic Bear's view that the financial system bail-outs not only worked but have benefited more than the fat-cat executives at banks.

Check out Chaster's unique investment fund, run by the investors themselves at http://charlesfund.com.

03 September 2010

Support Linked:Seattle

02 September 2010

EPNW: Look ma, it's TV on the internet!

Traditional media firms may be moving at a glacial pace, timidly trying to find their way in the Internet age, but not www.revision3.com. In this episode of Entrepreneurs Northwest Jim Louderback explains how his startup is already profitably offering internet TV, producing it's own content and developing sponsors from companies big and small. Better still, Revision3 is able to offer sponsors actual viewership guarantees.

NOTE: Check out the complete podcast directory of discussions with entrepreneurs. If you would like to be a guest on Entrepreneurs Northwest, to talk about your business venture, contact Michael Surkan.

01 September 2010

The art of the delayed write-off

This information from a bank insider does a great job illustrating how much flexibility banks have in avoiding write-downs on their books with non-performing loans. It goes a long way to explaining why many lenders have been so incredibly tardy in foreclosing, and taking possession, of properties with delinquent loans.

Many people don't understand the magnitude within the banking industry to "Kick the Can" or "Extend and Pretend". We see a lot of this within the industry.

Banks with existing balance sheet issues (nonperforming loans) really don't want to recognize more loan issues because it could force the FDIC to close them down.

In that light, a bank can take a commercial real estate loan or a business line of credit having issues and do a 3 month extension at loan maturity or change loan payments to interest in an attempt to give the borrower with more time to work things out or bring more capital to the table.

It's not uncommon for a bank to do multiple extensions in the mode of working out a loan with principal reductions over time. I've been in the situation where extensions have lasted 1-2 years. In normal recessions, extensions have worked quite well because borrowers could take equity out of their house or sell stock market assets to cure the loan.

In my estimation, if every bank had the collateral of all loans accurately appraised and each loan’s loan grading was finely tuned for an expected loss based on financial performance and collateral values, the number of essentially bankrupt banks in this county would increase by a factor of 4-5 from the current level.

In other words, there is a potential pool of 2000-3000 banks that would be on the FDIC radar's for getting closed.

This Week on Bear radio: What makes a bear market politician?

In this episode we discuss the attributes of bear market politicians and identify the MOST successful bear market leaders of all times. It takes a different message and personality type to thrive in politics during challenging economic times.