Pomp & Surkanstance

Solving Education Locally

2012-01-15T14:34:00.000-05:00

I am a Middle School History teacher of 9 years and still love my profession. When I started teaching, I had a dream of creating the ideal curriculum and then simply propagating it around the world to overhaul education. My first few years teaching were in a private school which tried to do exactly this. Although the educational level was much higher than public schools, I became imminently aware that the core of quality education is not having the best curriculum, but having the best teachers. Curriculum is decidedly easier to replicate than great teachers.

I still do not understand how any teacher or parent (and I am both) who understands that the most important factor in education is the teacher in the classroom would ever seek centralized solutions, as such solutions can never ensure that each classroom has a great teacher in it who is empowered to make the best decisions for his classroom. Political solutions, by definition, are centralized solutions to a localized problem. It does not matter whether the centralized solutions come from government or teachers unions, they cannot ensure quality in each local classroom.

The only viable solution, in my opinion, places the control of the classroom firmly in the teacher's hands. It is the New Zealand solution of some years back: localize the funding and the decisions in each school in the hands of the parents/teachers. In other words, the principal and teachers of each school should be solely answerable to the parents of their students, with no tenure.

This could be achieved through the complete privatization of education, but that would be unpopular. It can also be achieved by school choice whereby each school receives a certain amount per student who attends and then parents can vote with their feet if they are unhappy. Unfortunately, this option is unpopular with teachers, who often don't trust parents to make sound educational choices. From my experience, parents VERY consistently request for their child to be in the classes of the most competent teachers. The other common problem with vouchers and school choice is that the governments start attaching curricular and testing requirements to the funding, invalidating the purpose of local decision-making.

Politicians will never favor the privatization or localization of education because that would remove it from their influence. They want to find central solutions to all of our problems, whereby they are the heroes who save us and are subsequently rewarded by re-election. Their "solutions" generally involve centralizing decisions even more, which is always detrimental to education.

I have travelled all over the world observing great teachers, both public and private. In spite of the problems with our current system, I have observed public, inner city, American school teachers like Rafe Esquith, who manage to minimize the negative impacts of standardized testing and poor curricula on their activities in the classroom. His 5th grade students' scores on standardized tests are high because his students are learning what they ought to in his own self-designed curriculum, not because he focuses centrally on testing.

Finally, I find that the "Finland Phenomenon" is possible in each classroom without fixing the entire educational system. Yes, there are horrible schools where teachers may be restricted from the freedom of achieving this in their classroom, but quality teachers should not stay in such schools. I have decided to create a "Finland Phenomenon" in my classroom and am impressed by how much control I have to independently make a difference and motivate students by creating the right environment.

Let us lobby for localization of educational decision-making while doing our best to create our ideal learning environment in our own classroom.

This Week on Bear Radio: The bear market caused the US debt downgrade, not the other way around.

2011-08-09T14:25:00.001-04:00

In this week’s episode we discuss why most commentators have it backwards in blaming the market downturn on the S&P US debt downgrade. The S&P downgrade occurred BECAUSE the general economic mood is becoming more bearish instead of the reverse. The markets would have crashed anyway even if there hadn't been a downgrade.

Stocks had already been losing ground for weeks and there is ample evidence that the global economy has been slowing down. The US debt downgrade is almost irrelevant. The established trend (i.e. long before the downgrade) has been for investors to flee for the perceived safety in bonds of the largest industrial nations (i.e. Germany, US, Japan). Nothing has really changed, the process has just sped up a bit.

In the end, the US dollar is set for massive appreciation as the global economy goes into another tail-spin. Most of the world's private (and public) debt is denominated in dollars which creates unstoppable deflationary forces in an economic contraction as debtors are forced to sell whatever assets they have in order to raise the cash to repay loans. Ironically, all the debt everyone complains about is going to be the primary force that drives up the value of the dollar (and the subsequent crash in all asset prices).

We also talk about the idea that as volatility increases we can expect the unexpected with relationships between asset classes behaving in ways that no one would have imagined. The web of relationships between assets has become so convoluted with modern financial instruments and trading strategies that things will behave in surprising ways when markets are under stress.

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

Ideas are cheap - making them a reality is hard

2011-08-07T22:44:00.001-04:00

I think that innovation, in and of itself, is over-rated. There have always been people who “think outside the box” and come up with new and interesting ideas. The crucial issue is making these ideas into reality. This is where the challenge lies.

Just look at big companies whose research groups came up with amazing ideas, but the companies were unable to capitalize on them (leaving it to new upstarts to found new empires).

The same thing with countries. There are some countries with LOTS of brain power, and super-innovative thinkers. Yet these same nations are unable to ever harness the brainpower of its citizens into winning commercial franchises. France, for example, comes to mind. I am constantly amazed at the ideas which that nation’s intellectual’s and engineers come up with, yet they rarely manage to build thriving new businesses on those ideas. Russia is another excellent case in point.

You need a vibrant economic and investment environment for innovation to truly thrive and get beyond the garage. I think it is no coincidence that the number of new innovative product introductions tank during recessions and depressions, when investment decreases. In fact, it is my contention that people who look for innovation as an economic driver have things backwards. Innovation doesn’t drive the economy, the economy drives innovation (or at least the successful commercialization of new ideas). Funding more scientific research won’t do much to help if the broader economy is on the rails.

In short, ideas are cheap and plentiful. It is the wherewithal to turn those ideas into reality that really counts.

This Week on Bear Radio: It’s lonely being a bear

2011-06-02T14:15:00.002-04:00

In this episode we talk about how the ranks of Bears are being continuously depleted. Even Tim Ellis, the creator of SeattleBubble, has now bought a home. Are the Optimistic Bear and friends the only true bears yet living? Of course, the increasing levels of bullishness simply provide MORE reason for the Optimistic Bear to stay bearish. We also discuss the limitations (and outright futility) of technical analyses and even economics for predicting the future of markets. The sizzling economies of Australia, Canada, and China, are also talked about as we ponder when these bubbles are going to burst.

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear Radio: The Bubble Returns

2011-05-29T18:14:00.001-04:00

In this episode we discuss how the rash of tech IPOs and wild valuations are eerily similar to previous tech bubbles. Credit problems have only been swept under the carpet (evidenced by the fact that the US government now backs 90% of all mortgages) yet we see speculation rampant. We also talk about the value and limitations of technical analyses for investing. You don’t have to be right very often to succeed at investing. You just have to participate in the best investment opportunities and stay out of the market during the infrequent (but devastating) crashes.

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear Radio: credit deflation – the unexplained phenomena

2011-05-17T18:12:00.002-04:00

In this week’s episode we discuss how there isn’t a single school of economics that explains the modern phenomena of credit deflation. According to traditional economics theories the prices of goods and services will rise when the volume of money increases. However, we have seen cases in the last 30 years where prices fall even as the money supply grows. Whether you are a Keynesian, neo-classicist, Austrian or Marxist, not one of these theories can account for what has happened in Japan and is starting to occur in America. We also talk about how it feels like we are in a slow moving train wreck. The same dire economics stories dominate the news, such as the European sovereign debt issues, yet they just keep getting worse, month after month. It’s deja-vu all over again.

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear Radio: The diversification myth and why investing today is riskier than e

2011-05-06T20:09:00.001-04:00

In this episode we discuss the crash in the commodity markets and the amazing correlation which is occurring across almost all asset classes. Even BitCoin has been blowing another bubble. This correlation between assets, causing everything to move in lock-step, has made diversification almost impossible and created one of the riskiest investment environments in memory. We also talk about the certainty of improbable events and why it is sometimes good to panic.

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear radio: It’s an inflationary world out there

2011-03-21T17:46:00.001-04:00

In this episode Moses Kim explains that the rising prices in commodities and precious metals show that the US will be living in an inflationary environment for a long time to come. The massive US government debt and lack of economic competitiveness further ensure that the American dollar is only going to see lower valuations in the years ahead. Deflationists (like the Optimistic Bear) are mis-reading comparisons with the 1930s and Japan’s 20 year odyssey with falling prices. Precious metals, stocks, commodities, and emerging markets are the places to invest.

That said, Moses warns that Gold could be in store for a sharp, yet brief, correction.

You can find more of Moses’ ideas at:
http://expectedreturnsblog.com/

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear radio: No one beats the Optimistic Bear in bearishness! No one!

2011-03-14T17:12:00.003-04:00

In this episode we discuss how recent market volatility could have a bearish portent and how markets that keep rising for long periods without a significant correction are fragile. We examine how the rising price of oil could be viewed as either bullish or bearish for the future of crude prices. When it comes to understanding bubbles, the venerable Greenspan may actually have a good point: there is no good way to tell if there is a bubble until it’s over.

With so many bearish prognosticators turning bullish (even Mish has tempered his views) the Optimistic Bear declares his willingness to stand alone (or nearly so)! While not buying into the apocalyptic view, he remains firmly in the perma-bear camp, believing that major deflation is yet in store.

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

The next shoe to fall: Reverse Mortgages

2011-03-14T11:24:00.004-04:00

Slowly but surely we are starting to see cracks in the reverse mortgage market. Like all the new mortgage finance innovations of the bubble years, having a lender give a lump sum payment to an elderly homeowner for the privilege of collecting upon the death of the borrower sounded like a good idea. Unfortunately, we are now starting to see that many of the underlying assumptions of reverse mortgages were flawed.

In particular, it is now evident that home prices have fallen so much that many reverse mortgage holders are under-water, finding that the current market price of their home is worth less than what they borrowed. As the New York Times points out, this impacts any surviving spouses who had hoped to wind up with a little inheritance with the passing of their loved one.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/12/your-money/12money.html

Of bigger implications, however, is the fact that lenders are already starting to see situations where they are taking losses on reverse mortgages. The generous equity cushions lenders had thought they were leaving themselves have proven to be not so safe after all. When homes drop 40% or 60% in value even large equity cushions of 25% or 30% aren't sufficient to prevent losses.

Could losses from under-water reverse mortgages start to impact bank balance sheets?

I don't have a lot of sympathy for people who find their homes are being foreclosed upon when their spouse passes away. After all, these people managed to benefit from having the bank over-pay for the value of the home. At least the lender can't force anyone to make up the difference from the market sale price and the balance owed.

If the treatment of other distressed properties is anything to go by I wouldn't be surprised to see many lenders delay in the foreclosure, and sale, of reverse mortgaged properties as well. Banks have shown a great aversion to having to take write-downs on mortgages by selling for low market values and I doubt attitude will change with reverse mortgages.

Yes, job search discrimination exists – get over it!

2011-02-24T00:26:00.002-05:00

I know the frustration people feel in the job market. It took me nearly a year after Microsoft let me go in July 2009 to find full time employment again. It’s hard not to get depressed when no one returns your phone calls for informational interview requests and the only thing you receive from submitting job applications are form letters.

I began to wonder if all my experience and training was for nothing. How could I support my family working as a hamburger flipper? Is the world just intended for the very young, willing to work for peanuts as they begin their careers? Have I finally hit a wall where my lack of a college degree will prevent me from finding a good job ever again?

One recruiter at a well-known technology firm (who I got to know as a friend through my podcasting efforts) told me there was no point in my ever sending in a job application to his firm even if there was a perfect opening for someone with my background. My lack of a degree would automatically divert my application to the dust bin, according to my friend.

Is life over?

I just wouldn’t let myself dwell on those thoughts. Instead, I would drag myself out of bed every day, telling myself that this could be the day I find a job! I reminded myself that every job I ever had ever found came through roundabout methods. I’ve never led an orthodox life (or career) so why should I start now? When even my friends tell me it is pointless to apply for jobs on-line I simply resolved to go around the gatekeepers and become friends with the hiring managers themselves.

Eventually, my determination finally paid off. I am once again gainfully employed as a program manager at a software firm AND I have built a network of professional connections I wouldn’t have even dreamed possible when I was at Microsoft. Nevertheless, it took a LOT of effort and a willingness to jump into new things with both feet (again and again) to get me here.

The keys to my career salvation were twofold: 1) my willingness to work for free and 2) starting podcast shows as a networking tool.

Instead of sitting on my hands collecting unemployment insurance (and sending out resumes), I would reach out to local cash starved startups and offer to work for free, or for a promise of stock (which almost certainly would never amount to anything). This allowed me to keep my skills current AND to meet interesting people. When I do apply for jobs there is no embarrassing gap in my resume since I can legitimately tell people I have been working, and even go into great detail about the interesting work and accomplishments I have racked up. I was doing more interesting, and innovative, work at these startups than I ever did in my whole career at Microsoft! That alone was a very empowering feeling.

I also made it a goal to make at least 4 new professional connections a week, and my efforts at creating podcast shows helped immensely with this goal. I would invite business people, recruiters, and all manner of people I wanted to build friendships with to be guests on my podcast shows and to my surprise MOST PEOPLE SAID YES! I have interviewed nearly 200 people in the last year and a half, most of whom have become good friends.

Not one of the interviews I have been on came through submitting job applications. All of my interviews resulted from making connections with people in the industries and businesses where I wanted to work.

I know how hard the job market is these days, but I am able to tell people that there IS hope. Creativity and a willingness to work hard can make all the difference.

If you would like to learn more about my strategy for using podcasting to get a job check out my 10 minute video:
http://bit.ly/podintro1

This Week on Bear radio: The conservation of risk and the illusory safety of hedging

2011-02-23T16:25:00.001-05:00

In this episode we talk about how financial hedging can actually lead to bigger risks by encouraging imprudent behavior and endowing a false sense of security. The whole AIG debacle proved you can’t always rely on insurance (which is what hedging is, after all). Try as one might, it is simply not possible to eliminate or even minimize risk. You can only succeed in changing where the risk lies. Instead of the risk of an actual crop failure the risk now is that the insurer will make good on a claim. We also debate whether the people movement revolutions sweeping through the Arab world are bullish or bearish for the global economy. It can definitely be said that there is no historic correlation between commodity prices and geo-political unrest. For just one example, oil prices have both risen and fallen (aside from short term spikes on major news) substantially during major periods of upheaval and wars in the middle east.

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

Defying European Creditors Iceland says yes to deflation

2011-02-21T14:54:00.003-05:00

The Icelandic President's decision to veto yet another attempt to nationalize debts of defunct private banks not only shows that there are at least SOME politicians in this world who listen to their constituents but that a whole nation is voting to stop the inflationary insanity of debt creation in favour of deflation.

Instead of kicking the can further down the road, nationalizing the obligations to British and Dutch depositors of private banks which lent foolishly, Iceland is clearly saying that it is better to just take the hard medicine now and write off the debt.

In big and small ways the world is slowly waking up to the reality that the massive speculative debts built up over the last 30 years will simply have to be purged.

This Week on Bear radio: Commodity prices tell the story-inflation is everywhere

2011-02-16T16:58:00.002-05:00

In this episode Brad Rundbaken explains how commodity prices are the canary in the coal-mine pointing to the rising inflationary pressures resulting from all the stimulus and bail-outs. Changing cycles in weather patterns are also exacerbating pricing pressures on food stuffs. Conveniently, policy makers don’t include the prices of commodities in their inflation calculations, making it easy to deny that problems exist. That said, Brad urges caution in the market right now since things seem to have reached an overbought state. We close our discussion by pondering whether the internet age really has made a difference in modern mass revolutions (such as those occurring in Tunisia and Egypt) or whether popular uprisings today are just repeating the same pattern as those done long before the age of Twitter.

You can read more of Brad’s ideas here:
http://trendocracy.blogspot.com/

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

EPNW: The philosophy of organic marketing – where marketing and life fit into balance

2011-02-09T14:23:00.002-05:00

In this episode Jim Hodgson explains how blogging has helped him find new meaning in life, and focused his thoughts to allow him to achieve previously unobtainable goals. Jim has went from being vastly overweight to a triathlete and outdoorsman (recently trekking up Kilimanjaro). We also discuss Jim’s concept of “organic marketing”, which seeks to pull people in who are interested rather than blast the universe with useless spam. Sharing details on the internet about yourself, or business, can go a long way to winning over customers. Not only do customers want to know about the product, but they also love to feel a connection with the people or businesses they work with.

You can check out Jim’s blog about philosophy and achieving goals here:
http://jimhodgson.com

Information on organic marketing can be found here:
http://hodgsonco.com

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NOTE: Check out the complete podcast directory of discussions with entrepreneurs. If you would like to be a guest on Entrepreneurs Northwest, to talk about your business venture, contact Michael Surkan.

EPNW: How many impossible things do you do before breakfast?

2011-02-06T18:06:00.003-05:00

In this episode Joel Runyon explains how he realized it was only his own fears and excuses that prevented him from achieving his dreams. Instead of using excuses for a lack of money, or time, to avoid pursuing his passions, Joel has begun training for triathlons and pursuing the career in internet marketing he always wanted. Anyone can achieve impossible things if they only try. Unfortunately, most people give up on their impossible dreams before they even start.

Sure, failure is possible (and virtually inevitable on occasion), but if we don’t even try to achieve our dreams then we will never discover that we can do things that are considered impossible.

You can check out Joel’s blog of impossible things here:
http://www.joelrunyon.com/two3

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This Week on Bear radio: Why health care reform is driving up your medical bills

2011-02-03T15:18:00.003-05:00

In this episode Patrick Killelea explains how the US health care reform legislation actually provides incentive for insurance providers to charge even more. Restrictions on the amount of profit that can be made make it attractive to pay more for care and treatment to ensure a higher over-all bill. This might explain why Blue Shield has increased Patrick’s insurance premiums by 73% this year alone. It’s things like this that drive a guy to the streets in protest, which is exactly what Patrick did this week.

You can check out Patrick’s latest adventures in fighting the health insurance companies as well as his excellent financial news information at:
http://patrick.net/

If you are interested in deflation, check out the Deflation Study Group on LinkedIn (open to all LinkedIn members):
http://linkd.in/deflationsg

You can also listen to my in-depth Deflation 101 podcast.
http://bit.ly/deflation101

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

EPNW: Patents make the world go round

2011-01-28T19:37:00.003-05:00

In this episode Jim Haugen explains that patents are the lifeblood of any tech company and that it is always better to think about what might be patentable (or not) before the first piece of code is written. A little expert advice before a startup begins developing their product can save a lot of potential grief in the future. No one wants to be in a situation where they discover they have built a product which infringes on someone else’s intellectual property or that they are unable to protect their own ideas with patents. Jim also elaborates on why patents are not something you undertake with a do-it-yourself kit. A huge percentage of patents are rejected and It takes experience to know how to create filings that sail through the process.

You can check out more about Jim’s patent firm at:
http://www.seattlepatentgroup.com/

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This Week on Bear radio: Cycles and Pre-destination

2011-01-26T11:42:00.001-05:00

In this episode we discuss the idea that societies, and economies, are governed by both short and very long cycles of social mood and sentiment. If this theory of cycles (like those proposed by Kondratiev) are correct, then there is very little policy makers can do one way or the other to change economic outcomes. The grandiose visions laid out by the US President’s state of the union address are irrelevant to the economic and psychological prosperity of the nation. The ideas offered by the President’s political opponents are likewise irrelevant for improving the economy. These generational cycles also imply that the cause of the recession and “financial crisis” is deeper than a lack of regulations or risky investment behavior. It was the general bullish attitude of society which inevitably led to lax regulation and excessive risk taking. The next time there is broad bullish sentiment throughout society (80 or 90 years hence) then regulation will inevitably become lax and risk taking will again reach excesses.

We talk about how NO political leaders are championing the idea of state or municipal bankruptcies as a method to cure long-term budget problems. There are NO political leaders suggesting that the major financial institutions like CityGroup should just go bust and that bond-holders and depositors should lose their money. Instead, policy makers whine about deficits, stimulus, education and social safety nets.

Lastly, we explore the fact the Bitcoin is now reaching a new high, in alignment with other markets, with bearish implications.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

Linked:Seattle members on YouTube - in their own words

2011-01-24T13:58:00.008-05:00

NOTE: Don't forget to register for the February 16th Linked:Seattle meetup. You can find details and register here: http://bit.ly/lsmeetup

Tables are available for anyone wishing to promote their company with brochures or a small display. If you are interested in learning more about becoming a meetup sponsor please you can find more details at http://bit.ly/lssponsor. Early sponsors will be mentioned in a group announcement.

Listen to Linked:Seattle members are share their experiences, and tips, of working with the community to help their businesses and careers.

==========================
Corinne Cavanaugh of http://www.freeseattlesocially.com/linked.html is coming to the February 16th meetup.

==========================
Carol Mason Mortarotti of http://carolmortarotti.com - helping businesses with mobile and social media marketing.

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Kelly Clay from www.lockergnome.com interviewed Linked:Seattle meetup attendees on January 20th, 2011.

==========================
Michael Surkan and Susan J. Moore discuss how a little preparation can turn the large Linked:Seattle meetups into successful social networking events. You can find details and register to upcoming meetups here: http://bit.ly/lsmeetup

NOTE: Click here for a list of all the Linked:Seattle radio show recordings. You can also check out my own "Entrepreneurs Northwest" podcast shows (http://bit.ly/epnwfeed).

SEP: Does code review automation really improve quality?

2011-01-24T12:48:00.002-05:00

In this episode we discuss automated code reviews. Have code review automation tools grown up, and matured, to the point where they lead to REAL quality improvements? Should all software teams be using automated code review tools?

You can check out more information of our show guests here:

Stéphane Vaucher
http://ca.linkedin.com/in/vaucher

Chris Mefford
http://www.linkedin.com/in/csmefford

Listen to internet radio with Software Engineering on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

Job Search Tales: Help yourself to a job by helping recruiters

2011-01-20T11:31:00.002-05:00

In this episode Jay Kraker, Lesa Keller and Olivier Taupin explain how the Star Performer initiative offers job candidates a tremendous opportunity to build relationships with recruiters by helping them. The Star Performer group on LinkedIn helps match recruiters with job seeking volunteers who make it their job to help them fill their openings. It doesn’t matter if the best candidate is someone else. Building relationships with recruiters is invaluable for helping job seekers ultimately find the role they want. This is a win-win program. The recruiters get a dedicated assistant who plugs their openings on LinkedIn and candidates get to build the relationships they need.

You can learn more about the Star Performer program by watching this video:
http://bit.ly/staradviser

You can sign-up for the Star Performer program here:
http://bit.ly/startrain1

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NOTE: Please contact Michael if you are interested in being a guest on "Tales from the job search trenches" podcasts. Michael would like to discuss your job search strategy, and brainstorm ways to improve it with you.

This Week on Bear radio: A moment of Minsky

2011-01-19T01:44:00.004-05:00

In this episode Steve Keen shares his knowledge of economics to not only debunk the reverence paid to economists by policy makers but to explain that the titans of the economic theory are misunderstood. Keynes wasn’t the advocate for stimulus spending as many assume and Karl Marx actually had a lot of great insights that are conveniently swept under the carpet. Steve goes on to provide a tutorial on the life and ideas of his hero Hyman Minsky, explaining how this was one of the few who understood the sheer unpredictability that underlies all economics. We also discuss the how there is nothing special about the Australian, Canadian, or Chinese economies other than the fact that they have been able to breathe new life into their economies by blowing bigger bubbles. The end result is inevitable: global deflation.

You can read about Steve’s book “Debunking Economics” here:
http://debunkingeconomics.com/

You can read Steve’s blog posts on economics here:
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

If you are interested in deflation, check out the Deflation Study Group on LinkedIn (open to all LinkedIn members):
http://linkd.in/deflationsg

You can also listen to my in-depth Deflation 101 podcast.
http://bit.ly/deflation101

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear radio: Iceland as the model for economic recovery

2011-01-12T18:46:00.002-05:00

In this episode we discuss how Iceland’s decision to simply allow its banks to go bust may have been the wiser choice. Iceland’s economy is now growing again and the economy is re-setting itself. By contrast, nations like Ireland and Greece are taking on even MORE debt (in the form of bail-outs) to prop up their economies yet there is no end in sight to their economic demise. Sometimes it is better to just let the dead wood die and get started with a clean slate. We also discuss how currencies would function in a truly free market and what role, if any, central banks should have in such an environment.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

When facing insolvency banks will always choose to delay and pray

2011-01-12T18:21:00.001-05:00

Not that any more proof were needed, but here is ANOTHER article which points out how US banks are still playing tricks with their financial statements by delaying foreclosures and delaying the need to write down losses.

The commentator in this article (the estimable Messr Mish Shedlock) rightly points out that "Delays cost banks money and they know it". However, it is ALWAYS preferable to defer a loss until later if the alternative is to go bust today. The fact that a loss delayed may be greater later down the road than if it were addressed today is beside the point. When your only choice is to delay and pray or go bust immediately, the choice is clear.

If I were the executive at a bank that was facing insolvency if I took the write downs from all delinquent loans, I would ABSOLUTELY decide to delay forcelosure as long as possible, even if I knew the ultimate cost of delay was "higher". At least I can keep collecting a paycheque and bonuses until the bank finally collapses. And who knows, perhaps a miracle will happen and housing will recover making everything peachy again.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/us-banks-report-phantom-income-on-14.htm

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

Michael's in the Times again! This time talking about podcasting for jobs.

2011-01-10T15:06:00.006-05:00

Randy Woods has posted an article about my strategies for using podcasts as part of a job search tool in his blog on the The Seattle Times. He does a great job of explaining why podcasting is so useful as well as outlines the easy to follow-tips for making them.

http://blog.nwjobs.com/hireground/2011/01/podcasting-your-way-to-a-new-j.html

Don't forget to check out my video on how to use podcasting for jobs and business.

http://bit.ly/podintro1

NOTE: Please contact Michael if you are interested in being a guest on "Tales from the job search trenches" podcasts. Michael would like to discuss your job search strategy, and brainstorm ways to improve it with you.

The Message Matters: Internet Marketing 101

2011-01-05T20:51:00.002-05:00

Here are a series of short podcasts I recorded that outline how to create EFFECTIVE internet marketing programs through LinkedIn and podcasting.

In episode 1 I explain what social networking is and how companies can use it for marketing. While companies should definitely use Facebook and Twitter, the real focus should be on podcasting and direct marketing.

In episode 2 I outline how every internet marketing program begins with on the “soft” side by generating content, which can be blog articles, white papers or (and most especially) podcasts.

In episode 3 I talk about “hard” internet marketing. This is all about how LinkedIn can be used for highly targeted (and effective) direct mail campaigns.

This Week on Bear radio: Being rich is a state of mind

2011-01-05T14:38:00.003-05:00

In this episode Robert Gignac offers advice on financial planning. Be careful to choose financial advisors who don’t have an vested interest in selling particular products. It is also important to find advice from people who really explain the various products and options without assuming that consumers understand the different between annuities, dividends or tax-free retirement funds. Robert explores how your goals and state of mind are the key to real happiness. Just having a lot of cash doesn’t inevitably make one happier. We also discuss the differences in health care systems and investment options for Canada and the US, sharing our own experiences with each system.

You can check out more of Robert’s ideas (and his book) here:
http://www.richisastateofmind.com/

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

This show is sponsored by:

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

EPNW: Kick start your path to entrepreneurship with a franchise

2011-01-04T12:40:00.002-05:00

In this episode Thomas Wolter explains that starting a franchise can be a simpler and more reliable path to successful to entrepreneurship than starting your own firm from scratch. Franchises come with a proven business model and a turn-key operation (not to mention guidance) to get started. Franchises aren’t just about retail food. Thomas shares his suggestions of some great franchise options which are both inexpensive, and tailored to different expertise and personalities. There is a wide assortment of franchise opportunities, with options right for almost everyone.

You can check out Thomas' information on franchising options here:
http://buyafranchiseunlimited.com/

EPNW: Podcasting – The Indispensible Tool for Building Relationships

2010-12-31T02:30:00.007-05:00

NOTE: I am offering an on-line 1 hour webinar for that goes into detail on how to use podcasting to find a job or grow your business. The first 10 people to register will be able to get a 33% discount. Just type in the word "earlybird" for the discount code. Just click here to register: http://bit.ly/podcastintro

Learn how to use podcasting to build relationships to grow your career or business. This is the perfect tool to open doors to the people, and businesses, you want to know. It is all about having conversations with the people you want to know and building friendships. Having an audience of listeners is almost beside the point.

You can find more details on how to use podcasting for business and careers here: http://bit.ly/gttkny

You can check out my own podcast shows to get an idea of how I use this tool for both growing my career and finding business.

Entrepreneurs Northwest
Tales from the job search trenches
Practical Software
Linked:Seattle Radio

I even have a show on economics which is strictly as a hobby.

The Optimistic Bear

I am eager to make a presentation of the value of podcasting for networking to any group that might be interested. I can speak in person to groups in the greater Puget Sound area and can give webinars to groups further afield. Just e-mail podcasting@surkan.com if you would like to inquire about having me speak.

Patrick Killelea guest appearances on Bear Radio

2010-12-29T02:09:00.003-05:00

Check into this page for the definitive list of all the Bear Radio shows in which Patrick Killelea has been a guest. This directory is updated to contain the link to every new Bear Radio show that Patrick participates in.

February 2, 2011

Why health care reform is driving up your medical bills

In this episode Patrick Killelea explains how the US health care reform legislation actually provides incentive for insurance providers to charge even more. Restrictions on the amount of profit that can be made make it attractive to pay more for care and treatment to ensure a higher over-all bill. This might explain why Blue Shield has increased Patrick’s insurance premiums by 73% this year alone. It’s things like this that drive a guy to the streets in protest, which is exactly what Patrick did this week.

December 28, 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Bearish predictions for 2011

In this episode Patrick Killelea joins us to do some crystal ball gazing for 2011. Tune in to hear predictions for rising interest rates, a declining Euro, and crashing stock prices in Asia and America. Patrick predicts that affluent areas will see significant price erosion for 2011 and that the National Association of Realtors will declare that it is a great time to buy. The Optimistic Bear posits that America is embarking on a lengthy odyssey with deflation, much the same as Japan has experienced, and that 2011 will be one of the down years taking asset prices to new lows. Europe will experience a bail-out too far, where the political will to arrange yet a bail-out for another distressed state falters.

December 12, 2010

This Week on Bear radio: Posh neighborhoods beware – the housing bust is heading your way

In this episode housing blogger Patrick Killelea explains why real-estate prices still have a long ways to fall in the tonier communities. Prices fell faster in poor areas where people live paycheque to paycheque. The more well heeled home-owner has assets to burn through, and it takes them longer to get desperate enough to take losses. Patrick also talks about how the primary problem is the masses of bad debt, out of relation to incomes, which still hasn’t been written down throughout the economy. In Patrick’s view, the cozy relationships between banks and government have made the financial crisis what it is. The only thing government efforts to subsidize housing (or anything else, like education) accomplish is to drive up prices.

This Week on Bear radio: Bearish predictions for 2011

2010-12-29T02:01:00.001-05:00

In this episode Patrick Killelea joins us to do some crystal ball gazing for 2011. Tune in to hear predictions for rising interest rates, a declining Euro, and crashing stock prices in Asia and America. Patrick predicts that affluent areas will see significant price erosion for 2011 and that the National Association of Realtors will declare that it is a great time to buy. The Optimistic Bear posits that America is embarking on a lengthy odyssey with deflation, much the same as Japan has experienced, and that 2011 will be one of the down years taking asset prices to new lows. Europe will experience a bail-out too far, where the political will to arrange yet a bail-out for another distressed state falters.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

You can check out Patrick’s economic news site here (as well as his great forums for discussing real-estate and the economy):
http://patrick.net

If you are interested in deflation, check out the Deflation Study Group on LinkedIn (open to all LinkedIn members):
http://linkd.in/deflationsg

You can also listen to my in-depth Deflation 101 podcast.
http://bit.ly/deflation101

This show is sponsored by:

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

EPNW: Successful sales start with product development

2010-12-24T20:27:00.004-05:00

In this episode Matt Heinz explains that successful sales start during product development. No amount of salesmanship can make up for a product that doesn’t meet customer or market needs. It’s all about understanding your customer. Even the marketing strategies should take the target customer market into account. Social media won’t help much if you are selling to fortune 500 companies but could be highly effective dealing with teenagers.

You can find out more of Matt’s marketing ideas at:
http://heinzmarketing.com/

Today on Bear Radio: Bear markets are bad for liberty

2010-12-22T22:47:00.002-05:00

In this episode Alan Hall explains how factionalism and authoritarianism always increase during the negative move of bear markets. As people become more fearful they look to leaders who will protect them and gladly accept greater limits to their freedoms. Alan’s in-depth socionomics study on authoritarianism shows a revealing correlation between bear markets and authoritarian tendencies. It turns out that fear itself is something to be very afraid of.

You can read Alan’s study on authoritarianism here:
http://www.socionomics.net/PDF/Authoritarianism-Free-Update.pdf

You can find out more about socionomics at http://www.socionomics.net.

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear radio: Posh neighborhoods beware – the housing bust is heading your way

2010-12-22T01:20:00.004-05:00

In this episode housing blogger Patrick Killelea explains why real-estate prices still have a long ways to fall in the tonier communities. Prices fell faster in poor areas where people live paycheque to paycheque. The more well heeled home-owner has assets to burn through, and it takes them longer to get desperate enough to take losses. Patrick also talks about how the primary problem is the masses of bad debt, out of relation to incomes, which still hasn’t been written down throughout the economy. In Patrick’s view, the cozy relationships between banks and government have made the financial crisis what it is. The only thing government efforts to subsidize housing (or anything else, like education) accomplish is to drive up prices.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

Job Search Tales: Take control of your job search - pay for placement

2010-12-20T14:55:00.002-05:00

In this episode Scott Avidon talks about how his efforts to offer a commission for a successful job referral has resulted in an abundance of interviews and job offers. Ironically, most people who contact Scott with job opportunities don’t want to be compensated, but the very act of offering a commission has gotten Scott a lot of welcome attention, even leading to an interview on CNN. Scott has a great background in creative product development and marketing but it wasn’t getting him very far in his job search until he began his unorthodox job search approach. Scott talks about how the competitive job market has made it critical for candidates be creative to stand out from the crowd.

You can check out Scott’s web site and CNN interview here:
http://scottavidon.com/

This Week on Bear radio: Deflation – You aint seen nothin yet!

2010-12-15T02:51:00.003-05:00

In this episode special guest Jim Mosquera explains how the financial crisis has barely even begun and that massive deflation lies ahead. By explaining how money and credit work Jim outlines what caused the financial crisis and why policy makers are powerless to prevent even greater collapses in asset values. When looking for a bottom in stocks start thinking about returning to 1982.

You can check out Jim’s book on the financial crisis and how to survive it here:
http://www.EscapingOz.com

If you would like to learn more about deflation, listen to the in-depth Deflation 101 podcast.
http://bit.ly/deflation101

This show is sponsored by:

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

SEP Radio: Don't let your children grow up to be developers

2010-12-10T19:03:00.000-05:00

This is tongue in cheek, but I think the question about what careers we would recommend our children go into is a valid one. In this episode we discuss whether software engineering still a career we would suggest young people take on? Sometimes I wonder if the sheer excitement, and adventure, of programming is a thing of the past.

You can find more information about our show guests here:
Ken Lassesen - http://lassesen.com/
Stephen F. Heffner - http://pennington.com/

Listen to internet radio with Software Engineering on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

Introducing the LinkedIn Deflation Study Group

2010-12-09T10:52:00.000-05:00

I just created the Deflation Study Group on LinkedIn. You are welcome to join, and pass the information along. This is an open group free to anyone who wishes to join. This is a place to discuss all things related to deflation. What is it? What causes it? Is it very likely? What are the best strategies to cope, or even profit, with it?

http://linkd.in/deflationsg

By the way, I notice that there are only TWO groups that even come up on LinkedIn when you search for “deflation” but dozens of groups appear when you search for “inflation”. It would seem that few people see deflation as a real possibility.

If you are looking for more information on the subject you can check out my in-depth Deflation 101 presentation.

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows

This Week on Bear radio: The bubble in student loans

2010-12-08T12:46:00.001-05:00

In this episode we talk about how government subsidies have created a bubble in education that is eerily similar to what happened with housing. Prices are rising and unscrupulous lenders are pushing government backed loans for dubious educations. We also ask whether the financial statements of CitiGroup can be trusted.

This show is sponsored by:

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

EPNW: Are your employees living up to their potential?

2010-12-04T01:10:00.001-05:00

In this episode Bobby Bakshi explains that unless your employees are fully engaged, and inspired, by the mission of your company that they will only be living up to a fraction of their real potential. It's the mark of a true business leader that they can find ways to have each team member play to their unique strengths, and strive to achieve excellence. Luckily, these management skills can be learned and there are lots of new tools that make it easier than ever to uncover the hidden talents of your staff.

You can check out Bobby's ideas for building inspired work teams here:
http://resonantinsights.com/

Job Search Tales: Know thyself and the job will follow

2010-12-03T23:31:00.001-05:00

In this episode Teresa Dahl explains how finding a good job requires a good dose of self discovery and positive attitude. If you aren't confident in yourself, or what you want, why should an employer feel good about having you on the team? Focussing on the companies, roles, and managers, that fit you well may limit the over-all options but actually increase your chances of landing a job by allowing you to put in the quality effort of networking and research needed to land a job. It even pays to be honest, telling employers what you really believe your strengths and weaknesses are. No one trusts a person who says they are perfect.

You can find out more of Teresa's ideas about careers here:
http://dahlassociates.com/

Job Search Tales: A resume is only the beginning

2010-12-02T18:52:00.002-05:00

In this episode Kelly Harrington explains that although a resume is a necessary component in a job search, it is not sufficient to open doors or land jobs. Resumes just don’t work as well as they used to. Increased competition from mass unemployment and automated resume processing tools at employers often result in resumes just going into a black hole. Yes, build a good resume, but don’t spend a lot of time obsessing about it (even professionals disagree on the best styles), and DO NOT rely on it to get interviews.

You can check out Kelly’s ideas about job searches and building careers at:
http://careermaxgroup.com/

You can find information about creating great resumes here:
http://theresumethatgetsresults.com/

EPNW: Pressing the flesh in Seattle: There is no substitute for face-to-face networking to

2010-12-02T16:26:00.003-05:00

In this episode Ralf Wiebeck shares his insights on how networking events (like the ones he organizes) can be the key to finding leads and growing businesses. Don’t spread yourself too thin… It is better to keep going to the same networking events month after month, establishing firm relationships, than to keep going to new meetups every week. It’s not the size of your rolodex that counts, but the quality of the relationships you have with the people you know.
In this episode

You can find out, and sign-up for, the business networking events Ralf (and his wife Amy) host every week in Seattle here:
http://www.meetup.com/Casual-Business-Professionals/

EPNW: Social media - It's Where the Market Is

2010-12-02T00:59:00.002-05:00

In this episode Neal Schaffer explains that marketing through social media may take a lot of effort, but that every business MUST take advantage of it. Social media is where customers are spending an increasing amount of their time, and no company can ignore that. Even better, social media provides opportunities for business intelligence and lead development that never existed before. For an example, Neal shares tips on how LinkedIn can be an incredibly powerful marketing tool when properly utilized. Not all social media venues will work well for all companies, but a good marketing strategy, tailored to your business needs, will pay off handsomely.

You can check out more of Neal's social media marketing advice at:
http://windmillnetworking.com/

This Week on Bear radio: The message from Ireland is clear – debt write-downs must be avoid

2010-12-01T01:07:00.001-05:00

The Irish bailout by European nations and the IMF is following the same pattern we’ve seen throughout the entire financial crisis. In this episode we discuss the fact that whether it is consumer mortgages or sovereign debt issues, the response has been the same over the last few years – do anything and everything to avoid making lenders take a loss. Banks will lower monthly mortgage payments for struggling borrowers for a year but actually tack the difference with what is actually owed to increase the over-all loan balance. Governments will bail-out corporations so that bond-holders don’t have to suffer the indignity of a loss. Who cares if the borrowers will re-default later down the road, just so long as no one has to recognize the loss in the here and now.

This show is sponsored by:

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear radio: Investment advice for time travellers – hindsight isn’t everything

2010-11-24T01:28:00.002-05:00

In this week’s episode we discuss how investing can be difficult even with the benefit of a time machine and perfect hindsight. We also discuss the jitters in the European debt markets, Irish political instability and the recent volatility in municipal bonds. As if any more proof were needed, our commentators point out that the recent run on deposits with Allied Irish Banks despite the fact it had been given a clean bill of health by regulators earlier this year underscores the fact that policy makers lie.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

Linked:Seattle makes the news!

2010-11-21T12:47:00.002-05:00

Wow! Our Linked:Seattle meetups were written up in the Seattle Times. Our monthly gatherings may have started as just an ad-hoc experiment this summer, but they have grown so much they are getting attention from the media.

http://bit.ly/lsintime

This article does a great job of discussing how Linked:Seattle meetups can be useful for job seekers, but it’s useful to point out that our gatherings tend to be very broad, drawing in business professionals and entrepreneurs as well as those seeking employment. Actually, this is what makes our group so unique (and useful).

When it comes to meetups and social networking, be sure to check out the video Susan J. Moore and I made with advice on how to make the most of networking events.

NOTE: Click here for a list of all the Linked:Seattle radio show recordings. You can also check out my own "Entrepreneurs Northwest" podcast shows (http://bit.ly/epnwfeed).

Job search tales: The brand of you - take charge of your image on the internet to help your career

2010-11-19T19:17:00.002-05:00

In this episode Stephen Rose explains how everyone has a brand (or image) on the internet, whether they want one or not. The oft-told advice to watch what you say on the web is certainly important, but Stephen suggests that social media provides an opportunity for everyone to develop their career (and find jobs) by purposefully building their brand. A resume is just not enough to find a job anymore, your career will depend on how you are perceived on the web. Stephen recommends creating your own blog as the place to start with managing your brand, allowing you to show your expertise and to serve as a tool for making connections.

You can follow Stephen on twitter here:
http://twitter.com/stephenlrose

Here is the IT Pro community Stephen manages at Microsoft:
http://www.microsoft.com/springboard

SEP Radio: Can agile methodology be applied to all software development projects?

2010-11-19T12:25:00.000-05:00

I’ve been involved with software development for many years and very rarely have I ever seen “agile” process methodology work out. Could this be because of the nature of the software development projects I tend to specialize in or is it just that none of the product teams I have worked with understood agile methodology properly? In other words, are there some software projects where agile methodology will never work due to the very nature of what the software is? Listen to experts from the Software Engineering Productivity group on LinkedIn discuss where it makes sense to use agile methodology.

Our guests include:

Listen to internet radio with Software Engineering on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

This Week on Bear radio: Is perception really reality when it comes to economics?

2010-11-17T01:36:00.004-05:00

In this episode we discuss whether market perceptions of weakness in Ireland (or other nations) can force defaults. We also discuss how Quantitative Easing by the Federal Reserve is already backfiring with rising interest rates and a falling dollar. The show closes with a chat about the re-emergence of debtors prison in the United States.

This show is sponsored by:

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

EPNW: Putting it on the line – social media success comes through expressing yourself

2010-11-13T02:31:00.004-05:00

In this episode Chris Pirillo explains how business success through social media requires putting your personality out for all the world to see. Bland content, lacking in personality, won’t go very far in a world crowded with media. Chris also tells how the quickest way to get people following you is to start following others, and joining in their conversations. The art of marketing through social media is a messy one, but with a willingness to lay things on the line and actually talk with people on-line can lead to success.

You can check out Chris' web site here: http://chris.pirillo.com/

SEP Radio: Client-side PC apps - an endangered species?

2010-11-12T11:45:00.000-05:00

With the huge efforts being put into web and mobile apps these days it would seem that client-side PC software has become an endangered species. Is anyone out there still writing NEW client-side applications? Listen to experts from the Software Engineering Productivity group on LinkedIn discuss the future of client applications.

Our guests include:

Listen to internet radio with Software Engineering on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

EPNW: The entrepreneur transition doctor is in

2010-11-12T02:26:00.003-05:00

In this episode Michele Mattia talks about how her own experience of transitioning to becoming an author, speaker and life/business coach from the tech industry mirrors what many people are going through these days as they try to re-define themselves as entrepreneurs. There are no miracle cures for successfully transitioning to entrepreneurship, but it’s hard to go wrong to start by following your passion.

I couldn’t help but think of Doctor Mumford, and his effective methods of helping people find their own answers, during my conversation with Michele. I’ve always wished I could find an sympathetic, yet helpful, Dr Mumford in the real world, and now I have.

You can check out Michele’s web site here:
http://www.michelemattia.com/Home.html

This Week on Bear radio: The recent Bitcoin bubble and the psychology of jumping back into high risk investments

2010-11-10T01:12:00.001-05:00

In this episode of the Optimistic Bear show, marking our first anniversary, we discuss the recent collapse of the Bitcoin bubble, the “prosperity certificates” of Canada’s William Aberhart and the history of failed currencies. We also delve into the psychology of bubble investing, and propose some theories as to why investors seem so willing to get burnt with the same bad investments again and again. Lastly, we explore Harry Brown’s 16 golden rules of financial safety.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

EPNW: Zen and the art of making money

2010-11-07T18:03:00.002-05:00

After 30 years of being an entrepreneur in the banking business (starting no less than 3 banks) Jesse Tam shares the principals he has learned about making money. In this episode Jesse explains that getting to know one’s own values, and motivations, is the first step on the path to wealth. Understanding the true “value” of money is a philosophical journey that everyone has to take on their own path to success. Life may not be fair, but with Jesse’s tips each of us can carve out our own bit of happiness.

Self re-invention through social media: the case study

2010-11-04T02:07:00.001-04:00

In this episode Bob Fine recalls how unemployment led him down a path of discovering the power of social media, and a new world of possibilities leading to setting up conferences around the world. It sounds a little like déjà vu, seeing as how I’ve gone down this same path myself.

Now Bob has even put together a book highlighting experiences of numerous people who have re-discovered themselves, and found opportunities, just like Bob.

You can check out Bob’s book here at http://thebestofsocial.com/.

This Week on Bear radio: What does the rise of Republican power in congress mean for the economy?

2010-11-03T16:38:00.002-04:00

With election results coming in from across America today, we discuss what impact change in congressional leadership will have on the economy. In this episode we also ponder whether the Republicans will regret their victory if the Great Recession has a double dip. Politicians may have relatively little impact on the economy, one way or the other, but they get the blame when things go wrong as well as acclaim when there is prosperity.

You can check out our special guest Chaster Johnson's unique investment fund, run by the investors themselves at http://charlesfund.com.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

Making the most of Linked:Seattle meetups

2010-11-01T19:40:00.003-04:00

Michael Surkan and Susan J. Moore discuss how a little preparation can turn the large Linked:Seattle meetups into successful social networking events. Whether you are an executive, professional, entrepreneur, job-seeker or recruiter, Linked:Seattle meetups offer one of the best ways to make valuable connections to help with your business or career needs. Anyone can join Linked:Seattle (http://bit.ly/LinkedSeattle).

Don’t forget to tell your friends about the upcoming meetup. You can check out the attendee list, and RSVP yourself here:
http://bit.ly/lsmeetup

A special thanks to Greg Palmer for producing this excellent video.

NOTE: Click here for a list of all the Linked:Seattle radio show recordings. You can also check out my own "Entrepreneurs Northwest" podcast shows (http://bit.ly/epnwfeed).

SEP Radio: Is multi-threaded coding just a pipe dream?

2010-10-29T12:21:00.000-04:00

Multi-core computing has been around for years yet many apps only work on a single core. Even processor intensive activities like DVD ripping and encoding are done in single threads with most apps. It seems as if there are only a minority of apps where companies decide that the market benefits from better performance merit putting up with the pain of multi-threaded development. Is multi-threading something developer just do in the software they write as a matter of course, or is it just too difficult to justify the cost? Listen to experts from the Software Engineering Productivity group on LinkedIn discuss the future of parallel computing.

Guests include:

Listen to internet radio with Software Engineering on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

EPNW: Smelling the roses - how to succeed in sales by slowing down

2010-10-29T01:53:00.003-04:00

In this episode Travis Brandt explains how sales is a process that can’t be short-circuited. As stressed as entrepreneurs might be about getting that next paying customer, shortcuts to sales will only lead to disappointment. Small businesses don’t have to resort to Glengarry Glen Ross type sales strategies to be successful, but tenacity and a methodical approach will lead to results. We also discuss how poor products and pricing are just excuses for poor salesmanship.

You can find more of Travis’ sales tips on his blog:
http://www.travisbrandt.com/

This Week on Bear radio: The US health-care dog wagging the tale

2010-10-27T00:34:00.002-04:00

In this episode we discuss how stories of abuses in the American medical system are egregious, and shockingly easy to find. However, such atrocities of over-billing and fraud are actually a symptom of a deeper problem: the lack of a free market with responsible customers.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear radio: No investment strategy works 100% of the time

2010-10-20T01:35:00.003-04:00

In this episode we discuss how even the best investment strategies, founded on the most exhaustive historical data sets, can still go horribly wrong. No trend lasts forever. Even theoretically reliable seasonal cycles can throw investors for a loop.

You can check out our special guest Chaster Johnson's unique investment fund, run by the investors themselves at http://charlesfund.com.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

PS: Say goodbye to common code-base for mobile platforms

2010-10-15T20:53:00.002-04:00

In this episode the development team at gist.com, and their partner sensobi.com, discuss the challenges of developing for mobile platforms. The iPhone is still a must, but it now impossible to ignore Android. For some applications the Blackberry is a must as well. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet to mobile cross-platform development. Both Gist and Sensobi have found that it is important to use native features to build the best app possible for each device rather than trying to target the lowest common denominator in the hope of having a transportable code-base.

You can check out more details of our guests here.

Steve Newman, CTO Gist.com - www.gist.com/stevepnewman
Steve Orth, Sr Mobile Developer, www.gist.com
Ajay Kulkarni, Founder & CEO, www.sensobi.com
Andy Cheung, Founder & CTO, www.sensobi.com

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

This Week on Bear radio: Pick your poison – investing requires taking a stand

2010-10-13T02:01:00.002-04:00

In this episode we discuss how there is no such thing as a “safe” investment, and that people have to pick which economic scenario they believe in since no asset will perform well in all circumstances. We also talk about the crisis with mortgage processing, with shoddy paperwork and robo-signing. It’s hard to feel sorry for either the lenders or their delinquent borrowers. It’s just unfortunate that we will all pay the price of an exacerbated real-estate downturn as the mess slowly gets cleaned up in the years to come.

You can check out our special guest Chaster Johnson's unique investment fund, run by the investors themselves at http://charlesfund.com.

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

Casting the first stone...

2010-10-09T00:44:00.001-04:00

I may be bearish on real-estate (and have been since the early 2000s when I sold my home), but I don’t blame anyone for the housing bubble, or its collapse. It’s not the fault of evil bankers, fraudulent real-estate agents or incompetent regulators. Neither was the bubble the fault of homeowners cashing out equity or hoping to build a nest egg.

Instead, I believe that the credit bubble (of which housing was just one part) is simply the result of broad societal shifts in optimism and pessimism. One can no more complain about these generational patterns of sentiment than they can the ebb and flow of ocean tides.

The thing about manias is that nearly everyone is caught up in them, whether they wish to be or not. The president of an investment bank MUST play along with the same risky investments as other investment banks or they will find themselves fired by investors who are displeased that their bank is making lower profits than its peers. Ratings analysts have to play along, using optimistic assumptions, or they will find that competing agencies (who are willing to use rosy estimates) get all the business. Politicians who appoint rigorous regulators will find themselves voted out of office by the masses who are upset that the regulatory agencies are giving the companies they own shares in a hard time.

Property appraisers who use conservative valuations will find that no one brings them any appraisal business. During a mania even consumers are forced with having to either buy at irrational prices or sit out of the market for what could be decades. That’s not to mention the peer-pressure that results from seeing friends, family and associated get rich by participating in the feeding frenzy. It’s a strange soul who can stay emotionally everyone they know is telling them they are fools for not taking advantage of the great wealth generation machine sweeping the land. Even retirees relying on poorly funded pension plans had a role by putting pressure on fund managers to take risks that jeopardized what meager funding there was.

No, I don’t blame the lowly mortgage holders who took out zero interest loans with balloon payments. The simple fact is that everyone in society played their part in the great credit bubble of the last 20 years and thus no one in particular deserves the blame. To put this in perspective, what we have witnessed with the great credit bust of the early 21st century is nothing more than the playing out of a generational cycle of social attitudes which oscillates between fear and prudence to unbridled optimism and a willingness to shoulder risk (also referred to as a Kondratieff wave).

Now that the credit bubble has been pierced we are beginning the painful process of restarting the great cycle all over again.

This Week on Bear radio: Currency devaluation as the next magic cure to economic doldrums

2010-10-07T00:41:00.002-04:00

In this episode we talk about the growing popularity for currency devaluations around the world. Japan is just the most recent nation to get on the bandwagon with threats to intervene in currency markets to keep the yen down. Ironically, we discuss how it is strong currencies which often lead to the best outcomes.

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear radio: Are renters throwing money away?

2010-09-29T11:43:00.003-04:00

In this episode a guest from California asks if renters are just throwing money away. We discuss how bullish sentiment is at extremes by some measures, even though the recent stock rally is anemic and within the same trading range we’ve seen all year. Our conversation also turns to how the very fact the Federal Reserve is considering a SECOND round of quantitative easing demonstrates that it’s power over the economy is limited (i.e. otherwise a second attempt wouldn’t be necessary).

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear radio: No idea is too wacky in the bizarro world of central banking these days

2010-09-24T00:46:00.001-04:00

In this episode we suggest some more crazy ideas the Federal Reserve can consider to stimulate the economy. Since central bankers seem so willing to consider absurd policy measures these days we thought we’d help by sharing some doozies. We also talk about what impacts a deeper recession might have on the tech industry, hos spending would change and how which companies would win or lose.

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear radio: Deadbeat lending is sweet when someone else guarantees the loan

2010-09-15T12:13:00.007-04:00

In this episode Doug Eberhardt joins us to talk about the credit bubble of the last decade, and how those who made risky loans (which clearly couldn't be paid back) may not have been so dumb after all. In many cases there were implicit guarantees on bad loans. Why not invest in Greek bonds if you know that Germany would never allow a default for fear of wrecking the Euro? Why not invest in Fannie Mae bonds if you know the Federal Government would never allow such a critical part of the financial system to default?

In addition, we discuss how investing in Gold is a good idea for security but not as a path to wealth.

You can check out Doug’s web site for more insights on deflation and advice in gold investing.

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

job search tales: Making the most of networking events

2010-09-11T16:08:00.003-04:00

In this episode, Paul Anderson shares his strategies for getting the most out of networking events. There are numerous social mixers and gatherings for professionals to attend, but you need a plan to really benefit from them. The work starts before you even go to a networking event by 1) picking the right events for you and 2) going prepared with goals and research that will allow you to be effective. Paul also offers strategies for how to strike up conversations, and kindle relationships that will help achieve your career goals.

You can find out about Paul’s ideas and career strategy courses here:
http://prolango.com

job search tales: Grades alone aren't enough to get a job

2010-09-10T00:40:00.002-04:00

In this episode Dan Hallak shares his experiences helping college students plan their careers, helping them develop strategies to build portfolios, and industry contacts, long before they graduate. It's not good enough to just have good grades anymore. College grads have to have a focussed career strategy. Luckily, Dan explains how colleges offer great resources to help both students, and professionals in the broader community, develop career strategies. Students can even "double-dip", using their course-work as tools to build those all critical relationships with the business world.

You can check out more about the career services offered by Dan, and his colleagues at Bellevue College here:

http://bellevuecollege.edu/careers/

Mosques and Burning Quarans: Legality v. Respect

2010-09-08T20:16:00.002-04:00

After sympathizing with both views on the proposed mosque two blocks from ground zero, Thomas Sowell has proposed a perspective which I can fully support. It should not be illegal to create an Islamic center near ground zero, but it is profoundly insensitive of the Muslim community to even consider it.

Ironically, there are vehement calls for the Floridian pastor to show respect for Islam by not burning Quarans on September 11th. Unless those demanding that he not follow through with his plans are also pleading that the Muslim community similarly show respect by not building the proposed community center in New York, they are hypocrits. Some have even gone so far as to say that there may be vengeful killings of Americans in the middle east in reprisal for the Quaran burning in Florida. If this happens, it is merely a confirmation that there is a lack of tolerance among muslims and a dual standard.

Bibles have been burned by Muslims, and Christians have not reacted by killing Muslims. Nor have the people currently decrying the burning of the Quaran spoken out against the bible burnings by Muslims. If there are truly two separate Muslim communities, radically violent extremists and peace-loving, then it would be helpful to hear the peace-loving side publicly decrying the violent side.

In matters of principle, we should be consistent. Respect for others often extends beyond the letter of the law. The Muslim community should refrain from building their community center near Ground Zero for the same reason that they feel the Quarans should not be burned by the pastor in Florida. Each side stands to gain respect only if they demonstrate it themselves. Above all, the United States government should, if anything, entreat both sides to be respectful, and fund neither. By funding the mid-east trip of the 'Ground Zero' Imam, and openly supporting the Islamic Center while criticizing the Quaran-burning, our government is fueling the flames of intolerance by applying a flagrantly biased dual standard.

This Week on Bear radio: Does perception make reality?

2010-09-08T12:06:00.002-04:00

In this episode we ponder whether perception alone drives economic trends. Special guest, fund manager Chaster Johnson, challenges the Optimistic Bear's view that the financial system bail-outs not only worked but have benefited more than the fat-cat executives at banks.

Check out Chaster's unique investment fund, run by the investors themselves at http://charlesfund.com.

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

Support Linked:Seattle

2010-09-03T00:59:00.002-04:00

EPNW: Look ma, it's TV on the internet!

2010-09-02T01:42:00.002-04:00

Traditional media firms may be moving at a glacial pace, timidly trying to find their way in the Internet age, but not www.revision3.com. In this episode of Entrepreneurs Northwest Jim Louderback explains how his startup is already profitably offering internet TV, producing it's own content and developing sponsors from companies big and small. Better still, Revision3 is able to offer sponsors actual viewership guarantees.

The art of the delayed write-off

2010-09-01T15:05:00.005-04:00

This information from a bank insider does a great job illustrating how much flexibility banks have in avoiding write-downs on their books with non-performing loans. It goes a long way to explaining why many lenders have been so incredibly tardy in foreclosing, and taking possession, of properties with delinquent loans.

Many people don't understand the magnitude within the banking industry to "Kick the Can" or "Extend and Pretend". We see a lot of this within the industry.

Banks with existing balance sheet issues (nonperforming loans) really don't want to recognize more loan issues because it could force the FDIC to close them down.

In that light, a bank can take a commercial real estate loan or a business line of credit having issues and do a 3 month extension at loan maturity or change loan payments to interest in an attempt to give the borrower with more time to work things out or bring more capital to the table.

It's not uncommon for a bank to do multiple extensions in the mode of working out a loan with principal reductions over time. I've been in the situation where extensions have lasted 1-2 years. In normal recessions, extensions have worked quite well because borrowers could take equity out of their house or sell stock market assets to cure the loan.

In my estimation, if every bank had the collateral of all loans accurately appraised and each loan’s loan grading was finely tuned for an expected loss based on financial performance and collateral values, the number of essentially bankrupt banks in this county would increase by a factor of 4-5 from the current level.

In other words, there is a potential pool of 2000-3000 banks that would be on the FDIC radar's for getting closed.

This Week on Bear radio: What makes a bear market politician?

2010-09-01T12:24:00.002-04:00

In this episode we discuss the attributes of bear market politicians and identify the MOST successful bear market leaders of all times. It takes a different message and personality type to thrive in politics during challenging economic times.

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time.

SEP Radio: Fed up with the "cloud"!

2010-08-31T01:59:00.004-04:00

Cloud computing is popular, but it's no panacea. Listen to our expert guests discuss the pitfalls of cloud computing, which applications just won't work well in virtualized environments, and how it takes planning from the ground-up to reach success.

Listen to internet radio with Software Engineering on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

SEP Radio: Living in a 64-bit world: making apps work with 64-bit OSes

2010-08-27T23:29:00.004-04:00

Windows developers Anna-Jayne Metcalfe, Inbar Gazit & Sushil Sapre talk about their experiences with developing software for 64-bit OSes. In a world where 64-bit OSes have become standard our guests Anna-Jayne Metcalfe, Inbar Gazit & Sushil Sapre talk about their experiences with developing software that not only runs well in this increasingly common environment, but can take advantage of it as well. Tune in for advice on the issues to consider for making your apps compatible with 64-bit OSes, and hands-on advice in making the transition.

Be sure to check out:

Inbar Gazit’s Linked.NET user group
Anna-Jayne Metcalfe’s blog
Sushil Sapre’s engineering company, Xoriant

Listen to internet radio with Software Engineering on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

This Week on Bear radio: Greedy civil servants

2010-08-25T13:41:00.002-04:00

In this episode the Optimistic Bear rants about how the public sector employees are now paid MORE than private sector counterparts and that there is no way to save the unfunded civil service pensions.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear radio: 1987 déjà vu and the bubble in Treasuries

2010-08-18T12:07:00.002-04:00

In this episode we discuss how markets are following an eerily similar path to 1987. In addition, we talk about whether the rally in treasuries is going to crack as well as the growth in the barter economy and private currencies like Bitcoin.

You can check out more about the new private currency, Bitcoin, here:
http://www.bitcoin.org/

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time.

SEP Radio: RIP: The death of .NET?

2010-08-16T15:08:00.003-04:00

Software engineering experts Grant BlahaErath and Richard Minerich join me to share their thoughts on the state of the .NET development platform today and where it is headed. Do the added costs of licensing proprietary technology still make sense in a world with increasingly mature open source internet platforms?

You can check out Grant's latest venture here:
http://fizzik.com/

You can also take a look at Richard's blog:
http://richardminerich.com/

Listen to internet radio with Software Engineering on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

This Week on Bear radio: Neither bull nor bear, just trading the trend

2010-08-11T01:55:00.002-04:00

In this episode Steve tells how his strategy of trading trends allows him to make money in both bull and bear markets. The trick is to have the discipline to stay with a system. Stop listening to the pundits, just follow the trend and adhere to a system.

You can check out Steve's trading ideas here:
http://brooklynborntraders.com/

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time.

PS: Thinking small as the path to software engineering

2010-08-10T18:29:00.001-04:00

In this episode, Michael Vax shares his strategy of keeping his software under continual use in a production environment to keep a agile engineering environment. It takes a re-thinking of software development, but by doing work in a series of very short, modular, sprints it is possible to improve quality and get direct customer feedback to avoid wasted effort building the wrong thing.

You can check out Michael's blog on efficient software development here: http://www.getelastic.com/

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

PS: The language matters

2010-08-10T16:37:00.003-04:00

In this episode, Richard Minerich tells why the language developers use can have a huge impact on their productivity. New high level languages, like F# (one of Richard's favourite languages), free engineers from much of the traditional drudgery leading to faster development cycles and better quality.

You can read more of Richard's ideas here: http://www.atalasoft.com/cs/blogs/RickM/

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

PS: Software engineering productivity: more than just a measurement

2010-08-10T16:29:00.002-04:00

In this episode, Timothy Fong explains how measuring software engineering productivity is not just a matter of counting lines of code. What good is it to release a bloated piece of software on schedule that is never used? Before you can even talk about productivity you have to first define your business goals.

You can write timothy at tim.fong@opshub.com to ask for a white paper on 3 principals to using metrics for large scale agile.

NOTE: Practical Software is the official podcast for the Software Engineering Productivity group on Linked:In. You can listen to other episodes of Practical Software.

This Week on Bear radio: Kit Kitredge shows the way with deflationary frugality

2010-08-04T13:25:00.000-04:00

In this episode we discuss how changing consumer preferences, and product substitution play a key role in the deflationary process. Already we see people downsizing their expectations, taking in boarders to their homes, and switching to lower priced substitutes for all kinds of things. It’s starting to look at lot like the Kit Kitredge movie, set in the 1930s. We also talk about how surprising it is to see how long the process of de-leveraging and mal-investment purge is taking.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time.

This Week on Bear radio: Gold as antidote to uncertain times

2010-07-28T11:14:00.004-04:00

In this episode Doug Eberhardt explains how gold should be a part of every portfolio, providing safety in both inflation and deflation. Additionally, Doug compares the deflationary experience in Japan to what is happening in the US. Our panelists also discuss how there is no economic theory that adequately explains why nations with increasing money supplies (like Japan) can experience deflation.

You can c heck out Doug’s web site for more insights on deflation and advice in gold investing.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

Linked:Seattle Radio - An insider's view of Microsoft's past and future

2010-07-23T17:34:00.003-04:00

Listen to ex-Microsoft employees discuss how the company is addressing the challenges and opportunities before it today, and what lies in store. Is Microsoft headed to genteel decline, or is it about to embark on a new era of growth and technological development? Be sure to check out the Linked:Seattle community at http://bit.ly/LinkedSeattle.

You can also check out an article I wrote about my experiences at Microsoft here:
http://bit.ly/oOUh4

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NOTE: Click here for a list of all the Linked:Seattle radio show recordings. You can also check out my own "Entrepreneurs Northwest" podcast shows (http://bit.ly/epnwfeed).

This Week on Bear radio: Options expiry shenanigans and summer doldrums

2010-07-21T16:12:00.001-04:00

In this episode we discuss the strange way stocks behave on options expiry weeks and whether real action in the market will have to wait till the fall and the end of the summer doldrums. For good measure, we also talk about how recent finance reform legislation does nothing to prevent future financial panics.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time.

Japan: the picture of a multi-decade bear market

2010-07-14T20:02:00.003-04:00

When most people think of bear markets they tend to imagine a relatively short-term affair that reaches a bottom, over a year or two, and then recovers for many years (or even decades) in the future. Bear markets, in short, are just temporary blips as stock markets (and economies) move on to ever greater heights. Japan’s experience with a bear market that is over 20 years old shows that these simplistic assumptions regarding bear markets don’t always hold true.

A close examination of the Nikkei stock index for the last 30 years is a harrowing study in how pernicious, and grinding, bear markets can be. What is perhaps the most shocking is to see that this multi-decade bear market was punctuated by periods of considerable recovery, and growth, which would last anywhere from 1 to 5 years. There were numerous times where the Nikkei rallied 50%, or even more than 100% over a span of several years, only to lose all those gains and fall into a deeper pit.

The persistent trend downward is unmistakable, standing some 75% lower than its 1989 height as of June 2010, but this masks the times where it looked quite convincingly as if Japan was finally turning the corner.

As the United States embarks on its own deflationary journey it is important not to lose sight of what has happened in places like Japan. It is quite probable that America will also see strong rallies, and periods of apparent recovery (lasting for years, in fact), only to see all those hopes dashed as the economy goes into yet a deeper funk to lower lows. Deflation is a slow process and does not go in a straight line.

This Week on Bear radio: The view from North Carolina

2010-07-14T17:01:00.003-04:00

In this episode a caller from North Carolina tells us that the economy hasn't hit bottom there, and that from his perspective as a bank loan officer (with national exposure) a double-dip recession is already baked into the cards. We also delve into the profits and pitfalls of tax lien investing.

Listen to internet radio with Optimistic Bear on Blog Talk Radio

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time.