This Week on Bear radio: It’s an inflationary world out there

In this episode Moses Kim explains that the rising prices in commodities and precious metals show that the US will be living in an inflationary environment for a long time to come. The massive US government debt and lack of economic competitiveness further ensure that the American dollar is only going to see lower valuations in the years ahead. Deflationists (like the Optimistic Bear) are mis-reading comparisons with the 1930s and Japan’s 20 year odyssey with falling prices. Precious metals, stocks, commodities, and emerging markets are the places to invest.

That said, Moses warns that Gold could be in store for a sharp, yet brief, correction.

You can find more of Moses’ ideas at:
http://expectedreturnsblog.com/

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NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

This Week on Bear radio: No one beats the Optimistic Bear in bearishness! No one!

In this episode we discuss how recent market volatility could have a bearish portent and how markets that keep rising for long periods without a significant correction are fragile. We examine how the rising price of oil could be viewed as either bullish or bearish for the future of crude prices. When it comes to understanding bubbles, the venerable Greenspan may actually have a good point: there is no good way to tell if there is a bubble until it’s over.

With so many bearish prognosticators turning bullish (even Mish has tempered his views) the Optimistic Bear declares his willingness to stand alone (or nearly so)! While not buying into the apocalyptic view, he remains firmly in the perma-bear camp, believing that major deflation is yet in store.

Download the sound(right click and save as link) : Download

NOTE: Remember to tune into the Optimistic Bear weekly financial round-up every Tuesday at 9:00pm, Pacific Time. You can also listen to previous shows.

The next shoe to fall: Reverse Mortgages

Slowly but surely we are starting to see cracks in the reverse mortgage market. Like all the new mortgage finance innovations of the bubble years, having a lender give a lump sum payment to an elderly homeowner for the privilege of collecting upon the death of the borrower sounded like a good idea. Unfortunately, we are now starting to see that many of the underlying assumptions of reverse mortgages were flawed.

In particular, it is now evident that home prices have fallen so much that many reverse mortgage holders are under-water, finding that the current market price of their home is worth less than what they borrowed. As the New York Times points out, this impacts any surviving spouses who had hoped to wind up with a little inheritance with the passing of their loved one.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/12/your-money/12money.html

Of bigger implications, however, is the fact that lenders are already starting to see situations where they are taking losses on reverse mortgages. The generous equity cushions lenders had thought they were leaving themselves have proven to be not so safe after all. When homes drop 40% or 60% in value even large equity cushions of 25% or 30% aren't sufficient to prevent losses.

Could losses from under-water reverse mortgages start to impact bank balance sheets?

I don't have a lot of sympathy for people who find their homes are being foreclosed upon when their spouse passes away. After all, these people managed to benefit from having the bank over-pay for the value of the home. At least the lender can't force anyone to make up the difference from the market sale price and the balance owed.

If the treatment of other distressed properties is anything to go by I wouldn't be surprised to see many lenders delay in the foreclosure, and sale, of reverse mortgaged properties as well. Banks have shown a great aversion to having to take write-downs on mortgages by selling for low market values and I doubt attitude will change with reverse mortgages.